Tunis/Los Angeles – A new study warns that Tunisia’s political landscape is facing a dangerous shift that could lead to a return to authoritarianism. The country, once hailed as a success story of the Arab Spring’s democratic movements, is now at risk of undoing the progress made since the 2011 Jasmine Revolution.
As the country prepares for the October 2024 elections, experts are warning that President Kaïs Saïed may tighten his grip on power, jeopardizing the hard-won gains of the revolution. The findings come from a report by the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), which analyzes the events leading up to this moment and predicts what may happen next.
The Jasmine Revolution, sparked by widespread protests against the autocratic rule of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in late 2010, ignited the Arab Spring throughout North Africa and the Middle East. While other countries in the region saw civil war or counter-revolution, Tunisia emerged as a beacon of hope.
The first few years after the revolution saw a wave of political reforms, earning Tunisia high scores on the BGI Democratic Accountability Index. However, the country’s economic challenges persisted, hindering its democratic aspirations. Despite making progress in terms of democracy, Tunisia’s provision of public goods such as education, health, and infrastructure remained inadequate. This, combined with stagnating economic growth, rising unemployment and poverty, and an increase in emigration, laid the foundation for a brewing crisis.
The Berggruen Governance Index report paints a clear picture of this dynamic. While Tunisia’s democratic accountability score saw significant improvement after 2011, its fiscal capacity declined to concerning levels by 2021. The failure to deliver economic prosperity to its citizens eroded faith in the democratic institutions, leading to disillusionment and dissatisfaction.
Researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute, and the Hertie School, a university in Berlin, Germany, conducted the report. They found that the economic stagnation was caused by both internal and external factors. Internally, Tunisia’s governance struggled to stabilize the post-revolution economy, while externally, a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) further exacerbated the situation. FDI, which had reached nearly 9.5% of GDP under Ben Ali, plummeted after the revolution, contributing to Tunisia’s deteriorating economy.
In 2019, law professor Kaïs Saïed, who rose to prominence on a populist wave, won the presidential election. His victory marked a shift in Tunisia’s political trajectory, as he began eroding the democratic foundations that had propelled him to power. In 2021, he suspended the parliament in what many deemed an “auto-coup.” A year later, a constitutional referendum expanded his powers at the expense of the legislative branch, sparking fears of a return to authoritarianism. Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the increasing use of repression by Saïed’s government, including the imprisonment of opposition leaders and violent crackdowns on migrants. Tunisia’s once-praised democracy is now on the brink.
As the country prepares for the 2024 elections, analysts predict that it will serve merely as a formality to legitimize Saïed’s continued grip on power. Human Rights Watch reports that opposition groups face severe restrictions, with one candidate even running his campaign from prison. As political repression grows, Tunisia’s economic crisis deepens. The government’s rejection of a 2 billion US-Dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund in 2023, criticized by Saïed as a “dictate,” has further isolated the country from crucial international financial support. As citizens struggle with rising unemployment, inflation, and food insecurity, the prospects for a democratic recovery seem bleak.
The situation in Tunisia serves as a stark reminder of the relationship between democracy and economic development. According to the Berggruen Governance Index, countries with stronger democracies often enjoy higher standards of living. However, in Tunisia’s case, democracy has failed to deliver the expected economic benefits. This is partly due to the challenges faced by developing democracies, where public pressure for immediate consumption can hinder long-term investments needed for sustainable growth. Additionally, economic uncertainty in Tunisia has deterred foreign investors.
The precarious state of Tunisia’s economy has had direct consequences for its citizens. Vulnerable employment is on the rise, and the number of undernourished individuals has reached levels not seen since the revolution. The economic crisis has fueled social discontent, and with no clear solutions in sight, the country risks further instability.
The situation in Tunisia highlights a broader challenge facing emerging democracies worldwide: the need to deliver both political reform and economic progress. The researchers behind the report, published by the Democracy News Alliance, write that governments must address these issues simultaneously. When governments fail to improve living standards, citizens may grow disillusioned with democracy, creating an opening for authoritarian leaders to consolidate
