THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) downgraded its projection for Philippine coffee imports by 7.9% to 5.8 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), which ends in June.
The USDA’s December forecast for Philippine coffee imports compares with the June estimate of 6.3 million bags. It is also lower than the expected 5.85 million bags of coffee imports for MY 2023-2024.
According to the report, the USDA expects the Philippines to import 5 million bags of soluble coffee in MY 2024-2025, down 9% from the June estimate but level with the 5 million bags of soluble imports in MY 2023-2024.
The Philippines typically imports the majority of its coffee needs as domestic production cannot meet demand. Philippine-grown coffee can service about 38% of market requirements.
The Philippines is the fourth-largest coffee importer after the European Union (45 million 60-kg bags), the US (23.9 million bags), and Japan (7.25 million bags).
Meanwhile, the USDA maintained its MY 2024-2025 projection for Philippine coffee production at 450,000 60-kilogram bags. This was also the projection for MY 2023-2024.
The USDA also downwardly revised its projections for Philippine coffee consumption to 6.55 million bags from 7.05 million bags previously estimated for MY 2024-2025.
The USDA reported that world coffee production will be 6.9 million bags higher than the previous marketing year to 174 million bags in MY 2024-2025 due to higher output in Vietnam and Indonesia.
“World exports are forecast (to be) modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset reduced shipments from Brazil,” it said.
According to the report, Vietnam production is estimated to rebound by 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million in MY 2024-2025. Vietnam’s bean exports are also expected to rebound by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million due to higher available supply.
The Philippines imports most of its coffee requirements from Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the USDA said global consumption is expected to rise to 168.1 million bags due to increasing demand in the EU, the US, and China. — Justine Irish D. Tabile
