BofA Global Research spent this week quietly publishing something that matters a lot for sports betting investors.
The firm’s June 11 gaming note argues that the FIFA World Cup, held on U.S. soil for the first time in over 30 years, is more than a seasonal payday for DraftKings (DKNG).
It is a national customer acquisition event.
The firm hosted DraftKings Chief Product Officer Corey Gottlieb for a call on the company’s World Cup strategy.
Here is what BofA is watching, what Gottlieb revealed, and where the skeptics still have a point.
BofA’s note sees the World Cup as a conversion funnel for DraftKings
The World Cup brings in new accounts.
Those accounts are introduced to DraftKings Predictions, and that habit carries into the NFL season, which is historically the company’s biggest revenue period.
That sequence is worth paying attention to.
Most coverage treats the World Cup as a standalone event, but BofA sees it differently.
It is the first step toward a bigger goal: turning new bettors into regular users by the time the NFL season starts in September.
More Gaming:
- Casino operator closes two more locations in Chapter 11
- DraftKings Just Turned Profitable, and Prediction Markets Want Its Lunch
- JPMorgan flashes a red flag on Kalshi, Polymarket trading
Bank of America’s research, using Paysafe data, found that nearly one in five legal-state bettors plans to place their first-ever sports wager on the World Cup, CNBC reports.
That is the acquisition pool BofA thinks DraftKings is positioned to capture.
Gottlieb also mentioned specific details that support the thesis.
DraftKings is running more than 2,000 markets per match, about half of them live, alongside a new Spanish-language app built around its Telemundo media partnership, TradersUnion reports.
DraftKings posted its first profitable quarter
DraftKings reported $1.65 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, up 17% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $168 million and net income of $21.1 million, its first profitable quarter as a public company.
Still, the stock spent most of spring underwater.
However, shares have rallied lately, climbing roughly 18% over the past five trading days to trade near $29.
Flutter Entertainment, the world’s largest online sports betting and iGaming company by revenue, has fared worse, down roughly 50% in 2026.
DraftKings’ fastest-growing segment right now is Predictions.
DraftKings disclosed in a regulatory filing that annualized consumer volume on its prediction markets jumped 24% month over month in May to $1.3 billion, while total annualized trading volume rose 34% to $3.1 billion.
DraftKings’ own exchange is entering a crowded prediction market fight
DraftKings’ Predictions platform has so far relied on contracts from outside exchanges to offer World Cup markets. That’s starting to change.
Its Railbird Exchange, doing business as DKeX, has filed CFTC paperwork for its own sports contracts covering winners, spreads, props, and player statistics, DeFi Rate reports.
That puts DraftKings in direct competition with rivals.
Kalshi’s tournament winner market alone has topped $130 million in trading volume, according to Kalshi’s own data, while Robinhood is using the tournament’s opening day to launch its Rothera exchange partnership.
What DraftKings brings to the table this tournament:
- More than 2,000 betting markets per match across all 104 games.
- A Spanish-language Predictions app tied to Telemundo broadcasts.
- Its own CFTC-regulated exchange, Railbird, competing directly with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why the World Cup alone won’t move DraftKings stock much
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins has been clear about expectations.
He told analysts he has “very high expectations” for the World Cup as a customer acquisition tool, but does not expect it to be a major revenue event compared with the NFL or NBA, Legal Sports Report notes.
Related: Morgan Stanley reveals new DraftKings stock price target
There is also a real cost. DraftKings has guided to a $200 million to $300 million EBITDA hit in 2026 from prediction market spending, MarketBeat reports via Yahoo Finance.
Morgan Stanley’s $39 price target still assigns zero value to prediction markets in its base case, while Citizens has set a $34 target after flagging the same World Cup tailwind, according to Investing.com.
Any actual contribution from Railbird would be additive to those calls, not required.
What DraftKings investors should watch before the NFL season
BofA’s thesis starts looking good if DraftKings’ World Cup signups are still active by September, when DraftKings historically generates its biggest revenue of the year.
Investors should treat the next earnings callas a checkpoint.
Watch out for:
- An update on Predictions volume growth.
- Confirmation that Railbird’s full contract menu has launched.
- Commentary on how many World Cup accounts carried over into NFL markets.
None of this guarantees a smooth ride.
Prediction market spending is already pressuring near-term profits, and the competitive field, from Kalshi to Polymarket to Robinhood’s Rothera, is getting more crowded by the week.
But BofA’s bet is that DraftKings enters that fight with more reach than anyone else right now.
Related: BofA doubles down on cautious S&P 500 view for rest of 2026
