The bearish case for SpaceX has recently been the everyday norm. It is no longer coming from just one corner of Wall Street. I’ve now heard concerns from traders, longtime investors, and market veterans, and the list keeps growing.
I’ve previously covered the former Nasdaq CEO‘s lockup warning, Doug Kass‘s short thesis, and the fact that Michael Burry studied the trade and walked away. Now Jim Cramer, who remains bullish on Elon Musk and the long-term SpaceX story, is telling investors to pump the brakes.
This comes after prior coverage in mid-June when Cramer mentioned SpaceX was unable to maintain its meme status. He was right at that time. That’s why SpaceX has been bleeding.
If you’re looking to buy SpaceX, maybe buy a little, but I’m begging you, if you want to go big, to at least wait for the first wave of the lockup on insider selling to expire next Thursday and let it drag the share price lower before you pull the trigger.
Cramer said that on Mad Money, Tuesday, July 28. It’s not a bear call. That’s a timing call. Timing is key in this market, and Cramer thinks you need to be patient here.
We find doing nothing the most difficult task of all, yet it’s the most important ingredient for success in the market. Given what’s on the calendar in early August, I think it is worth taking seriously.
Also Read: SpaceX Latest News and Stories
Why the August 6 lockup expiration changes everything for SPCX
SpaceX (SPCX) debuted at $135 on June 12, opened at $150, and surged to an all-time high of $225.64 by June 16, reaching a $3 trillion valuation that briefly surpassed both Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).
Since then, the stock has fallen approximately 50% from that peak, trading around $112 as of this writing. The market cap has dropped from $3 trillion to $1.53 trillion. That’s a wipeout of roughly $1.5 trillion.
In fact, it’s a figure above the entire market value of Tesla (TSLA), currently at $1.12 trillion.
More SpaceX:
- SpaceX IPO gives Elon Musk a net worth number that stuns Wall Street
- Oppenheimer issues bold SpaceX stock price target
- SpaceX lands $30 billion Google deal a week before its IPO
Now comes the next pressure point. On Aug. 6, up to 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale — roughly 20% of restricted holdings for eligible employees and early investors — more than doubling SpaceX’s public float, according to TheStreet.
Additional tranches of about 7% of locked shares are set to unlock every two to three weeks through late October 2026, with another 28% becoming sellable after the company’s third-quarter report, according to The Motley Fool.
Related: SpaceX stock sends investors a signal they need to see
Cramer put the basic economics plainly. “Generally speaking, more supply results in lower prices,” he said.
CEO Elon Musk’s stake remains restricted under a separate long-term lockup running until June 2027. But the employee and early investor selling that begins Aug. 6 is significant enough on its own to move the stock, especially in a name already carrying short interest above 30% of the float.
What SpaceX’s financials actually show heading into earnings
SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4, and I think it’s important to highlight where the company stands at the moment. Revenue is estimated at $6.8 billion and a loss of $0.22 per share, according to Stockwits’ report.
The underlying numbers as we head to the Q2 report are not comfortable to read. In Q1 2026, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.3 billion on revenue of $4.7 billion, according to TheStreet‘s reporting.
Related: HSBC sends troubling SpaceX stock prediction
For the full year 2025, the company reported $18.7 billion in revenue and a net loss of $4.9 billion. Accumulated total losses since founding in 2002 stand at $41.3 billion, according to the company’s prospectus.
The only profitable division remains Starlink, which generated approximately $4.4 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in 2025. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) business lost $6.4 billion. The rocket business also runs at a loss.
Cramer said he’ll be watching for Starship updates and continued Starlink’s subscriber growth alongside the AI revenue numbers. But even a strong earnings print may not be enough.
“Even if they report a great quarter on Tuesday,” Cramer said, “I don’t know if it can withstand the lockup expiration on Thursday.”
Why waiting might be the smartest trade of all
The setup here is genuinely unusual. You have a company with a legitimately compelling long-term story of satellite internet, hypersonic launch, and AI infrastructure trading more than 50% below its all-time high just weeks after its IPO.
Doesn’t that sound like a golden buying opportunity? It honestly does. But on paper.
But the combination of a massive lockup expiration, 90-day cancellable AI contracts, deepening quarterly losses, and short interest above 30% of the float creates a near-term risk profile that doesn’t match the long-term narrative.
Cramer’s advice isn’t to avoid SpaceX forever. It’s to let the supply hit the market, let the earnings land first, and buy from the people who need to sell rather than handing them a perfect exit. That’s patience. And right now, patience looks like the more disciplined trade.
Related: SpaceX’s huge stock dive batters Elon Musk’s wealth
