Updated 14 October 2026. Brent crude futures rose 63 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $106.32 a barrel by 03:45 GMT on Wednesday 14 October (Reuters via Business Recorder), recovering most of Tuesday’s fall. Overnight, a Houthi missile hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran and UKMTO reported two more ships struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Verdict: the risk premium is back, but nothing has yet taken barrels off the market, and US September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET can push the other way. Reference levels: $97 below, $114 above.
Key facts
- Spot, 14 October: Brent $106.32, up 0.6 percent, and WTI $94.80, up 0.7 percent, at 03:45 GMT (Reuters via Business Recorder). Trading Economics showed Brent near $105.95 later in the Asian session.
- The last two sessions: Brent settled at $106.65 on Monday, its highest close since 15 September (Vantage Markets), then fell about 1.3 percent on Tuesday (Dealplexus).
- Aramco strike: a missile hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran late on Tuesday, causing a limited fire and no injuries, according to the Saudi Press Agency (via The National). Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said it was the company’s executive headquarters. Neither Aramco nor Saudi authorities have confirmed which building was hit.
- Hormuz: UKMTO reported on 13 October that a container ship and a tanker were each struck by an “unknown projectile” north of the Musandam Peninsula, citing a verified source (Gulf News). No vessel names, damage or crew details were given.
- Supply offsets: Saudi output rose by more than 2 million barrels a day in September to 8.372 million bpd, and OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a sixth straight time (Trading Economics, citing OPEC).
- Today’s data: US September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline inflation of 3.6 percent year on year, up from 3.4 percent in August; core is expected at 0.2 percent month on month and 2.5 percent year on year.
Why oil rose after the Aramco strike
The Houthis had warned they would answer Saudi-led strikes on Sanaa, and spokesman Yahya Saree named the Aramco headquarters in Dhahran as a possible target. Tuesday night’s strike made good on that threat. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Dhahran and other missiles towards Haradh and Riyadh, where fragments injured four people, according to Saudi Civil Defence (The National).
The market reaction was measured. Brent recovered Tuesday’s losses but did not break Monday’s high. The building hit was an office, not a processing plant, terminal or pipeline, and The National reported it is unclear whether the incidents could affect production, refining or exports. That distinction matters. Oil markets price attacks on Saudi infrastructure by the barrels at risk, and an office fire with no injuries puts none at risk directly.
What changes the picture is the direction of travel. The coalition struck Houthi fuel storage and loading berths in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar late on Tuesday, according to The National, so a further Houthi response is likely. The Houthis have now struck the kingdom’s airports and its national oil company’s headquarters within a week. A hit on Abqaiq, Ras Tanura or the East-West pipeline would be a different event. Our analysis of the Riyadh airport strikes covers the earlier phase of the campaign.
Hormuz: more strikes, oil still moving
Tuesday’s UKMTO report adds two vessels to a run of attacks that began on 10 October, when an outbound tanker caught fire after a strike on its port side. The IRGC navy has claimed some of the strikes, including a “third violating supertanker” on 12 October, which was never independently confirmed (see yesterday’s Brent analysis).
Tankers are still transiting the strait. Freight and insurance costs are rising, but there is no measurable loss of supply yet, and that is why Brent is near $106 rather than the $114 it averaged in September, according to the EIA. Goldman Sachs said Russia’s extra diesel exports are unlikely to ease global fuel prices much (Trading Economics), so the Russian offset weighs more on sentiment than on supply. More Saudi crude is the bigger offset on the supply side.
How CPI moves oil today
CPI matters for oil this time because energy is driving the headline. Record September petrol prices account for most of the expected jump to 3.6-3.7 percent. Markets will focus on core, though. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September, and CME FedWatch on 13 October priced under a 20 percent chance of another hike at the 27-28 October meeting and more than 85 percent by December (Fortune).
A core reading of 0.3 percent or more would revive October hike bets, lift the dollar and weigh on crude. A soft core of 0.2 percent or less would take pressure off the dollar and leave the Gulf headlines in charge. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast had core at 0.20 percent month on month (via Admiral Markets).
Brent price: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $97 | Core CPI comes in at 0.3 percent or more and October hike odds jump, Hormuz traffic holds up, and the Houthi-Saudi exchange stays away from oil facilities. | The 6 October low of $97.06, about 9 percent below Wednesday’s spot. |
| Base | $102-$110 | Attacks continue at the current pace, with no hit on Saudi processing or export infrastructure, while extra Saudi crude caps rallies. | The range since early October, and Trading Economics’ end-of-quarter model estimate of $108.60. |
| Bull | $114 | A Houthi strike on Saudi processing or export sites, confirmed tanker losses that make owners avoid Hormuz, or a soft CPI print that weakens the dollar. | The EIA’s September Brent spot average of $114. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s spot near $106. Trading Economics’ $108.60 end-of-quarter figure is a statistical model output, not an analyst forecast.
What to watch
- 8:30 a.m. ET today: September CPI, especially core month on month. 0.3 percent or more is bearish for oil via the dollar.
- Saudi damage assessments: whether Aramco reports any effect on operations, and whether the next Houthi target is an oil site rather than an office.
- UKMTO notices naming the two vessels struck on 13 October and describing the damage.
- Tanker transit counts: a sustained fall would turn the risk premium into a supply loss.
- 27-28 October: the next Fed decision.
For the week’s full calendar, see our Brent week-ahead outlook.
Quick take: Brent near $106 is pricing the Aramco strike and the latest Hormuz hits as a rising risk, not a loss of barrels. The building hit in Dhahran was an office, oil still moves through the strait, and Saudi output is up by more than 2 million bpd. That supports a $102-$110 range. The route to $114 runs through an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure or confirmed tanker losses. The route to $97 runs through a hot core CPI print and a quiet week in the Gulf.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent futures traded at $106.32 a barrel at 03:45 GMT on Wednesday 14 October 2026, up 63 cents or 0.6 percent (Reuters via Business Recorder). Trading Economics showed about $105.95 later in the Asian session.
Was Saudi Aramco’s headquarters hit?
A missile hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran late on 13 October, causing a limited fire and no injuries, according to the Saudi Press Agency. Bloomberg reported it was the executive headquarters. Aramco has not confirmed which building was struck, and there has been no reported effect on oil production.
Why did oil only rise 0.6 percent?
The strike hit an office building, not a processing plant or export terminal. Tankers are still moving through Hormuz, and Saudi production rose by more than 2 million barrels a day in September. Traders are also waiting for US CPI.
How will today’s CPI report affect oil?
A core reading of 0.3 percent or more would raise the odds of a Fed hike in October and strengthen the dollar, which usually weighs on oil. A softer core would ease that pressure. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on 14 October.
Could Brent fall below $100?
Yes, if core inflation runs hot and the Gulf stays quiet. Our bear case is $97, near the 6 October low of $97.06.
What would push Brent to $114?
A Houthi strike on Saudi processing or export infrastructure, confirmed tanker losses that make owners avoid Hormuz, or a clear drop in transits. $114 was the EIA’s September Brent average.
Sources: Reuters via Business Recorder (Brent and WTI prices, 14 October 2026); Trading Economics (Brent quote, Goldman Sachs and OPEC comments, end-of-quarter model estimate, 14 October); Vantage Markets (Monday settlement, 13 October); Dealplexus (Tuesday close); The National and Saudi Press Agency (Aramco strike, coalition strikes, interceptions, 14 October); Bloomberg (Aramco headquarters report, 13-14 October); Gulf News and UKMTO (vessel strikes, 13 October); Dow Jones economist poll, Cleveland Fed nowcast via Admiral Markets (CPI expectations); CME FedWatch via Fortune (rate-hike odds, 13 October); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (September Brent average).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.
