Updated 23 October 2026. Spot gold fell to $3,986.74 in Asian trade on Friday, a three-month low and the first print below $4,000 since July, before bouncing to about $4,014 by 03:30 GMT (FXStreet). Thursday’s 2.8 percent drop to $4,024.55 was the lowest close since 20 July (Investing.com). Verdict: this is forced selling, not a change of view. Traders dumped metals to cover losses in an AI-led stock rout while oil at $114 keeps a December Fed hike priced near 80 percent; Newmont’s record quarter shows the miners are still printing cash at $4,000. Reference levels: $3,900 below, $4,120 above.
Key facts
- Price: a fresh three-month low of $3,986.74 in the Asian session on Friday 23 October, with XAU/USD at $4,014.25 at 03:30 GMT (FXStreet). Bloomberg said bullion fell as much as 0.9 percent to below $3,990, the lowest since mid-July. Trading Economics quoted $4,015.76 on Friday morning, down 0.2 percent on the day and 6.1 percent on the month.
- Thursday: spot gold settled $4,024.55, down 2.8 percent, its lowest since 20 July (Investing.com); Mitrade measured the fall at about $119. Silver fell nearly 6 percent to $54.09 at 06:41 GMT on Friday after a low near $53.43 and is down about 10 percent in October (FXEmpire).
- Why: the Nasdaq fell more than 2 percent on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI-related companies and into Treasuries, and traders liquidated precious metals to cover losses elsewhere (Bloomberg, Trading Economics). Brent crude at $114 revived inflation fears, and initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against 200,000 expected, a three-month low (Mitrade).
- Fed: the FOMC meets on 27-28 October and is widely expected to hold at 3.75-4.00 percent (FXStreet). For December, FXStreet puts the chance of another hike at about 80 percent, FXEmpire at about 78 percent for at least one hike by year-end, and Trading Economics cited CME FedWatch above 85 percent on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 25-basis-point hike in December. September PCE follows on 29 October.
- Newmont: third-quarter results filed on 22 October: attributable production 1.302 million ounces, realised price $4,317 an ounce, all-in sustaining cost $1,454 an ounce, adjusted EPS $2.20, free cash flow $1.9 billion, a $0.26 dividend and $1.6 billion of buybacks since the last call including $451 million in October. Full-year AISC guidance was improved to $1,520. Chief executive Natascha Viljoen said Newmont “remains on track to achieve our full-year 2026 production guidance and improved full-year cost outlook” (8-K).
- Levels: Mitrade’s support zones are $4,017-$4,040, then $3,932-$3,951 and $3,829-$3,849, with resistance at $4,101-$4,110. FXStreet flags $4,065-$4,070 as the first resistance and Societe Generale’s near-term downside target at the June low of $3,940-$3,960. FXEmpire sees $3,946-$3,963, then $3,890.
- Dollar: the dollar recovered from a three-week low on hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven flows (FXStreet). The 10-year yield eased during the tech selloff, but gold did not benefit (Mitrade).
A margin call, not a verdict on gold
Thursday’s $119 drop had nothing to do with gold’s own story. The selling came from the equity side: AI names fell, the Nasdaq lost more than 2 percent, and funds that were long both trades sold the liquid asset to meet the loss on the illiquid one. Trading Economics’ Friday note describes exactly that sequence, and Bloomberg frames the sub-$3,990 print as a volatility event inside a stock rout. The rate channel did the rest. Oil at $114, which we track on the Brent page, keeps the December hike near 80 percent, and a three-month low in jobless claims removes the labour-market excuse for a pause.
What has not changed is the miners’ arithmetic. Newmont sold its gold at $4,317 in the third quarter and produced it for $1,454 all-in, a margin of more than $2,800 an ounce, and it bought back $451 million of stock in October alone with gold already falling. Gabelli Gold Fund’s Chris Mancini argues the Hormuz energy crisis is only delaying gold’s move toward $5,000 and that mining shares are generating strong cash flow with gold above $4,000 (Mitrade). The question for Friday is whether $4,000 holds as a floor or becomes the ceiling; the June low at $3,940-$3,960 is the level Societe Generale is watching.
Next week decides the rate premium
The Fed decision on Wednesday is priced as a hold, so the information is in the statement and in Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference: whether December is signalled as the next hike or left open. Thursday brings third-quarter GDP and the September PCE print the same week, and a hot PCE with oil at $114 is the combination that turns an 80 percent December probability into a certainty. The gold-positive path runs through the stock market: if the AI rout extends and the Fed sounds worried about financial conditions, hike odds fall and the forced selling stops. That is the path Trading Economics flagged on Friday when it noted doubts about AI investment “reduced expectations of further Fed rate hikes”.
Gold today: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,900 | The equity rout continues into the US open, $3,986 gives way, and the June low at $3,940-$3,960 is broken on a hot PCE. | About 2.8 percent below Friday’s $4,014, under Societe Generale’s $3,940-$3,960 target and near FXEmpire’s $3,890 support. |
| Base | $3,960-$4,070 | Gold oscillates around $4,000 into the Fed, with $4,065-$4,070 capping bounces and the June low holding on dips. | Mitrade’s $3,932-$3,951 support to FXStreet’s $4,065-$4,070 resistance, the range of Friday’s session so far. |
| Bull | $4,120 | The Fed flags financial-condition risks, December hike odds fall from 80 percent, and the dollar gives back its bounce. | Above Mitrade’s $4,101-$4,110 resistance and FXStreet’s $4,100 level, about 2.6 percent above Friday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Friday
- The US open: whether the AI rout continues. Gold’s Thursday loss tracked the Nasdaq, not the dollar.
- $3,986: Friday’s low. A second break below $4,000 in New York hours would put the June low at $3,940-$3,960 in play.
- Oil: Brent at $114 is the inflation input the Fed cannot ignore; a pullback toward $108 helps gold more than any technical level.
- Silver: down 10 percent in October and the better gauge of forced selling; a bounce above $54.53 (FXEmpire) would signal the liquidation is done.
- Miners: Newmont’s reaction to its record quarter. If the stock holds while gold tests $4,000, the margin story is winning.
Quick take: gold printed $3,986.74 on Friday, a three-month low, after an AI-led stock rout forced metals selling and oil at $114 kept a December hike near 80 percent. Newmont mined at $1,454 and sold at $4,317, so the miners are fine. Expect $3,960-$4,070 into the Fed. A continued rout and a hot PCE open $3,900. A worried Fed and falling hike odds open $4,120.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold fell to $3,986.74 in Asian trade on Friday 23 October 2026, a three-month low, and traded at $4,014.25 at 03:30 GMT (FXStreet). Trading Economics quoted $4,015.76 on Friday morning.
Why did gold fall below $4,000?
An AI-led selloff in US stocks on Thursday forced investors to sell precious metals to cover losses, while oil at $114 and a three-month low in jobless claims kept December Fed hike odds near 80 percent (Bloomberg, Trading Economics, FXStreet).
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
Markets expect a hold at 3.75-4.00 percent. The December meeting is where a hike is priced: about 80 percent per FXStreet, about 78 percent per FXEmpire, and above 85 percent per CME FedWatch as cited by Trading Economics on Wednesday.
What did Newmont report?
Record third-quarter adjusted net income of $2.3 billion, or $2.20 a share, on a realised gold price of $4,317 and an all-in sustaining cost of $1,454 an ounce, with $1.9 billion of free cash flow and a $0.26 dividend (8-K filed 22 October).
What are the key gold levels?
Support at $3,986 (Friday’s low), $3,940-$3,960 (the June low and Societe Generale’s target) and $3,890; resistance at $4,065-$4,070 and $4,101-$4,110 (FXStreet, FXEmpire, Mitrade).
Is silver falling too?
Yes. Silver was $54.09 at 06:41 GMT on Friday after a low near $53.43, down about 10 percent in October (FXEmpire).
Sources: FXStreet (Sagar Dua, three-month low $3,986.74 and $4,014.25 at 03:30 GMT, Societe Generale target, 23 October 2026; Haresh Menghani, Fed hold expectation, 80 percent December hike, resistance levels, 05:29 GMT 23 October); Bloomberg (drop to below $3,990, AI rotation, 23 October); Investing.com (Thursday close $4,024.55, lowest since 20 July, 22 October); Trading Economics (Friday quote, monthly change, Fed and Goldman notes, 22-23 October); Mitrade (jobless claims, Chris Mancini of Gabelli, support and resistance zones, 23 October); FXEmpire (silver prices, 78 percent hike odds, support levels, 23 October); Newmont Corporation Form 8-K third-quarter release (22 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
