The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday in Mexico with an opening ceremony followed by the tournament’s first match between hosts Mexico and South Africa, marking the beginning of the largest World Cup in history.

Spread across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through July 19, the tournament is expected to draw millions of visitors and generate a surge in spending across travel, hospitality, transportation, betting, and consumer goods sectors.

While global economic growth remains uneven and consumer spending has shown signs of strain in several markets, analysts believe the month-long sporting spectacle could provide a meaningful boost to a range of companies tied to tourism and entertainment.

According to FIFA’s socioeconomic impact analysis conducted with the World Trade Organization, the tournament is expected to add roughly $41 billion to global GDP.

Travel and hospitality firms stand to gain

One of the clearest beneficiaries could be the travel and lodging industry.

B. Riley estimates that the World Cup will attract around 13.1 million visitors, including both ticketed and non-ticketed attendees.

The brokerage forecasts that approximately 21.3 million hotel room nights will be booked through online travel platforms during the event.

Analysts expect major hotel operators such as Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide, and Hyatt Hotels to benefit from higher occupancy rates, alongside travel platforms such as Airbnb, Booking Holdings, and Expedia Group.

Marriott has indicated that World Cup-related demand is expected to extend into the third quarter, while Airbnb expects hosts in New York-New Jersey, Boston, and Los Angeles to generate some of the highest earnings during the tournament.

Deutsche Bank believes hotel real estate investment trusts (REITs) with exposure to host cities could see meaningful gains.

The bank incorporated a 50-to-75 basis point increase in revenue per available room across its forecasts and named DiamondRock Hospitality, Host Hotels & Resorts, Park Hotels & Resorts, and Ryman Hospitality Properties among its preferred names.

DiamondRock has the highest exposure to World Cup host-city revenues at 34%, followed by Sunstone Hotel Investors at 23%, Host Hotels and Park Hotels at 21% each, and Ryman Hospitality at 14%.

Beyond hotels, Deutsche Bank also highlighted rideshare operators Uber Technologies and Lyft as likely beneficiaries of increased visitor traffic.

Betting operators eye a surge in wagering activity

Sports betting companies are also expected to receive gains as fans engage with the tournament.

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon estimates that global wagering on the World Cup could exceed $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion during the 2022 tournament.

The brokerage expects the event to contribute roughly 2% to 5% growth in operator EBITDA during 2027, particularly for companies with strong soccer audiences and international operations.

Macquarie identified Flutter Entertainment, owner of FanDuel, as one of the best-positioned companies.

The firm’s global footprint provides exposure not only to North American markets hosting the tournament but also to football-centric countries such as Brazil.

Deutsche Bank estimates that US sports betting handle related to the World Cup could reach $3.3 billion under its base case scenario.

FanDuel is projected to account for approximately $1.3 billion of that total, followed by DraftKings at $1.1 billion, with smaller contributions from BetMGM, Caesars, and TheScoreBet.

Coca-Cola, retailers, and restaurants positioned for tournament demand

The World Cup could also provide a platform for global consumer brands.

Morgan Stanley named The Coca-Cola Company its top beverage pick on June 8, citing the tournament as a near-term catalyst.

The brokerage maintained an Overweight rating and set a price target of $89, implying roughly 6% upside from recent trading levels.

Coca-Cola has been a FIFA sponsor since 1978 and will once again enjoy extensive global exposure during the event.

However, some analysts caution against overstating the financial impact.

According to AInvest, the World Cup’s value for Coca-Cola is more closely tied to brand visibility than material earnings growth.

“The sponsorship costs are already sunk. The incremental volume lift from a six-week tournament, even one hosted in North America, is a marginal contribution against a $48 billion revenue base. It is a catalyst for sentiment, not for fundamentals,” it said.

AInvest added that Coca-Cola’s share-price gains this year have largely been driven by pricing power and execution rather than World Cup-related expectations.

Citi said traditional grocery chains such as Albertsons and Kroger, along with large retailers including Walmart and Target, could benefit from higher household spending tied to the World Cup.

The brokerage also expects increased tourism and group-viewing events to support restaurant demand.

That could provide a boost to fast-food and casual dining chains such as McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Wingstop, and Chipotle, while food distributors including Performance Food Group, US Foods, and Sysco may also see higher volumes during the tournament.

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London’s FTSE 100 index moved higher on Thursday, supported by a rebound in financial stocks, although gains remained constrained by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and growing investor concerns over rising corporate spending on artificial intelligence.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 climbed 0.6% to 10,316.05 points by 0917 GMT.

Meanwhile, the mid-cap FTSE 250 remained largely unchanged.

Financial stocks lead market gains

Financial companies provided the strongest support to the benchmark index during the session.

HSBC and Standard Chartered each gained around 2%, while Prudential rose 3.4%, making it one of the top performers on the FTSE 100.

The recovery in these stocks followed a challenging period for companies with significant exposure to Hong Kong.

Over the past week, such firms had come under pressure after China tightened regulations governing cross-border investments, an area that has traditionally been an important source of business for several UK-based financial institutions.

Thursday’s gains suggested investors were reassessing the impact of the regulatory changes after the sharp declines recorded in recent sessions.

Technology shares under pressure

While financial stocks advanced, technology-related shares weighed on broader market sentiment.

Relx fell 1.6%, while Sage Group declined 2.5%.

The weakness mirrored losses seen among major eurozone technology companies, including SAP and Capgemini.

Investor sentiment toward the sector was affected after Oracle unveiled new debt-backed artificial intelligence spending plans.

The announcement intensified concerns about the scale of investment required to compete in the rapidly evolving AI market.

Adding to the pressure, UBS downgraded the broader European information technology sector.

Investors have increasingly questioned whether enterprise customers could shift spending away from traditional software providers and toward emerging AI-focused models and services.

Corporate developments drive individual stock moves

Among individual companies, Frasers Group rose 1% after the retailer controlled by British billionaire Mike Ashley launched a €2 billion ($2.31 billion) takeover offer for German fashion brand Hugo Boss.

Airline stocks also attracted attention.

Wizz Air gained 5.3% after reporting an operating profit that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Despite the stronger-than-expected profit performance, the airline forecast lower revenue per available seat kilometre during the first quarter.

The company attributed the outlook to disruptions related to the conflict involving Iran.

In contrast, health and safety equipment manufacturer Halma suffered significant losses.

The company’s shares fell 12.6% after it projected slower organic constant-currency revenue growth for fiscal 2027.

Focus turns to central banks and geopolitical risks

Investor attention later in the day was expected to shift toward the European Central Bank’s policy decision and commentary on interest rates.

Market participants were also closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with escalating geopolitical tensions continuing to influence risk sentiment across global financial markets.

At the same time, traders were preparing for key economic data and evaluating the outlook for UK monetary policy.

According to data compiled by LSEG, markets expect the Bank of England to increase borrowing costs by 25 basis points in September as policymakers continue efforts to address price pressures.

The British pound remained relatively stable against the US dollar, trading within the mid-$1.33 to $1.34 range and holding just below the $1.34 level.

Sterling’s performance reflected a combination of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and investor caution ahead of significant US inflation data.

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SAP stock (NYSE: SAP) fell in Thursday’s pre-market trading as investors reacted to a spending shock from rival Oracle, not to any fresh bad news from SAP itself.

Oracle shares dropped about 9% after its earnings call, while SAP slid more than 3% in early US trading.

The trigger was Oracle earnings where the company said capital expenditure could reach as much as $95 billion in fiscal 2027, far above the $67.7 billion analysts had expected.

For software investors, Oracle’s strong cloud quarter was overshadowed by a bigger concern: the rising cost of staying competitive in the AI race.

Why Oracle’s $95 billion bet spooked the markets?

Oracle did not report weak demand. In fact, it reported the opposite.

The company’s fourth-quarter cloud revenue rose 47% to a record $9.9 billion, helped by booming demand for AI computing power.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue jumped 93%, and remaining performance obligations, a measure of future contracted revenue, climbed to $638 billion.

But investors focused on the cost of the impressive numbers.

Oracle’s capital expenditure surged 162% in fiscal 2026 to $55.7 billion, above its own $50 billion target.

For fiscal 2027, the company now expects capex of up to $95 billion.

CFO Hilary Maxson said around $70 billion would be Oracle’s own spending, with another $20 billion to $25 billion expected to be repaid by customers.

The cash-flow picture added to the concern as Oracle generated negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026 as it poured money into data centres and AI infrastructure.

Maxson also warned on the earnings call that gross margins would “step down” this fiscal year as the data-centre buildout accelerates.

Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk tried to frame the spending as a sign of strength.

He said the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 delivery was approaching one gigawatt of capacity, almost matching what Oracle delivered in the previous four quarters combined.

Also read: Why Oracle earnings are significant for Intel, AMD stock

The ripple effect

SAP’s weakness appears less about company-specific news and more about sector read-through from Oracle’s guidance.

The two companies overlap across enterprise software, cloud services, databases, ERP and AI-enabled business applications.

Oracle’s plan to spend as much as $95 billion on AI infrastructure, therefore, raises a broader question for the sector: whether rivals will also face higher investment requirements to defend growth and market share.

That is why SAP was caught in the move.

The company has not announced a comparable capex plan or issued a fresh profit warning, but investors are pricing in the possibility that competitive pressure from AI infrastructure spending could eventually weigh on margins across enterprise software.

The fear is simple: if Oracle’s AI infrastructure push works, other enterprise software companies may need to spend more aggressively to compete.

If it does not work, the whole sector may have to deal with investor skepticism over whether AI spending is producing enough returns.

Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer, summed up the tension in comments reported by Reuters.

“The demand is real, with cloud infrastructure revenue and backlog growing fast. But the funding question is getting harder, not easier, with capex coming in well above estimates and free cash flow still negative,” he said.

There is also a second concern hanging over the software sector. AI tools are increasingly capable of automating tasks that traditional enterprise software products were built to manage.

That does not mean SAP’s business is broken, but investors are becoming more sensitive to any sign that AI may change the economics of enterprise software.

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US stock futures rose on Thursday as investors moved back into beaten-down technology shares and took some comfort from signs that Washington and Tehran were still exchanging messages on a possible peace framework.

The rebound followed a bruising Wall Street session in which major indexes fell more than 1% and tech stocks slipped into correction territory.

Chipmakers led the premarket recovery, while easing oil prices helped cool some fears over inflation.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. Futures point to a stronger open

US equity futures traded higher before the opening bell, suggesting investors were willing to buy into the previous day’s weakness.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.72%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 1.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 378 points, or 0.75%.

The Nasdaq outperformed as traders returned to technology shares after a sharp pullback.

The S&P 500 is still down about 4% from its record closing high in early June, reflecting concern that valuations, especially in technology, had moved too far too quickly.

2. Chip stocks lead the rebound

Semiconductor names recovered in premarket trading after Wednesday’s selloff pushed parts of the technology sector into correction territory.

NVIDIA, Intel, and Micron Technology rose between 1.2% and 4.7%, helping lift Nasdaq futures.

The rebound suggests investors are still willing to back the artificial intelligence trade, even as concerns grow over the cost of building the infrastructure needed to support it.

Still, the sector remains under scrutiny. Elevated valuations mean chip stocks may be more sensitive to inflation data, bond yields and corporate spending plans than the wider market.

3. Iran talks help ease oil fears

Markets also drew support from signs of progress in US-Iran diplomacy, even as both sides continued to exchange attacks.

Three Iranian sources and a European official said the two countries were discussing details of a memorandum after reaching a political understanding, though some issues still required further negotiation.

Expectations that talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained on track helped push oil prices lower.

That matters for equities because any sustained surge in crude could worsen inflation and keep pressure on central banks to stay hawkish.

4. Inflation data returns to centre stage

Investors are waiting for the US Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims, both due at 8:30 am ET.

The data will be closely watched after Wednesday’s consumer inflation report showed prices rising at the fastest pace in three years in May, partly because of higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

A stronger PPI reading could revive concerns that inflation is becoming harder to contain and make it more difficult for the Fed to signal any policy relief. A softer number, however, could support the rebound in risk assets.

5. Oracle slides while Navan jumps

Among individual movers, Oracle shares fell 7% after the company projected fiscal 2027 capital spending above Wall Street estimates.

The update underlined how much cash large technology firms may need to pour into AI infrastructure.

Navan moved in the opposite direction.

Shares jumped 17.6% after the corporate travel booking company raised its full-year revenue and operating income forecasts, citing stronger business travel demand and growth among enterprise customers.

Investors are also watching the expected Friday market debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is set to be valued at $1.75 trillion and could test appetite for richly valued growth assets.

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Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview was not designed as a stock picker, a credit analyst, or a trading assistant.

The model sits in a more uncomfortable corner of artificial intelligence: cybersecurity.

Anthropic says Mythos can identify and exploit previously unknown software vulnerabilities across major operating systems and browsers.

For banks, asset managers, insurers, exchanges and payment firms, that claim lands in a place far more sensitive than productivity.

Finance runs on shared software, cloud providers, payment rails, data vendors and decades-old internal systems.

If an AI model can find weaknesses faster than institutions can patch them, the risk is no longer just a technology problem. It becomes a market-confidence problem.

Anthropic has not framed Mythos Preview as a general public release.

The model is being handled through restricted access, but the capability it demonstrates is what matters for finance: AI systems are getting faster at finding and turning software weaknesses into working exploits.

A cyber model with financial consequences

The first mistake would be to treat Mythos as another general-purpose AI.

Unlike consumer-facing chatbots or the AI assistants now being tested for research, compliance and client service, Mythos matters because of what it suggests about the next stage of machine-speed vulnerability discovery.

Anthropic has said its red-team testing found that Mythos Preview could identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser when directed by a user.

That would be striking in any industry, but for finance, it is especially sharp.

Banks do not just operate websites and apps. They maintain huge technology estates that include core banking systems, trading platforms, payment gateways, risk engines, customer databases, cloud deployments and third-party vendor links.

Some of that infrastructure is modern, but much of it is old, heavily customised and difficult to replace.

In large institutions, even identifying the full map of software dependencies can be a challenge.

A model that accelerates vulnerability discovery changes the balance of pressure. Defenders may be able to find weak points earlier.

But attackers, if they gain comparable capabilities, may be able to compress the time between discovery and exploitation.

That is the central dilemma: Mythos could strengthen the financial system, but only if defenders can absorb and act on its findings faster than adversaries can weaponise similar tools.

When prediction gets cheaper

Ajay Agrawal, professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management and co-author of Prediction Machines and Power and Prediction, told Invezz that the impact of advanced AI agents should be viewed as a shift in the economics of decision-making, not simply as a cheaper way to produce analysis.

That framing is useful for Mythos, even though the model’s most visible capability is cyber rather than investment analysis.

If vulnerability discovery becomes cheaper, security teams will face more findings, more triage work and more decisions about what matters most.

The scarce resource may no longer be the ability to spot a flaw, but the ability to judge which flaw matters most.

In other words, the financial sector’s bottleneck could move from detection to responsibility.

The patching problem is the real pressure point

Financial institutions already spend heavily on cyber security, but the issue is whether their operating model can keep up with a world in which AI tools produce serious security findings at a much faster pace.

Finding a vulnerability does not mean the problem is fixed.

First, teams need to check whether the flaw affects their systems. Engineers must test it, risk teams must assess the exposure, and business heads need to understand whether fixing it could disrupt critical services.

Vendors may also need to release updates, and regulators may need to be informed. In some cases, even the patch can create new operational risks.

That workflow is slow because banking technology is not a clean laboratory. It is a living system that must remain online.

The unveiling of Mythos suggests a future in which the discovery side of cyber security becomes faster and cheaper, while the remediation side remains constrained by people, governance, legacy architecture and regulatory expectations.

Big banks may have the money and staff to respond quickly. Smaller banks may not.

Large cloud providers may be able to fix a problem fast, but a small vendor that supports an important back-office system could take much longer.

That means the weakest point may not sit inside the bank itself. It could be with an outside provider, even though the bank is the one that suffers the reputational damage.

Why the IMF sees a financial-stability risk

The International Monetary Fund has already pushed the debate beyond corporate cyber hygiene.

It has warned that AI-enabled cyber tools could raise financial-stability risks, especially where institutions depend on common software and shared service providers.

Financial firms are connected through more than balance sheets. They are connected through operating systems, cloud infrastructure, payment systems, market utilities, messaging networks, data feeds and software vendors.

A single exploited weakness in a widely used component can therefore behave less like a local technology fault and more like a common shock.

The danger is not only that one bank is hacked. It is that many institutions discover, at the same moment, that they share the same exposure.

In that scenario, cyber risk can become liquidity risk, market risk and confidence risk.

There are still buffers as the IMF notes that advanced AI cyber capabilities are not yet widely available, and closed, industry-specific financial software can be harder to target than open-source infrastructure.

But those protections may weaken as capabilities diffuse, models improve, and attackers learn to combine public information with automated tooling.

Regulators are shifting from concern to action

The European Central Bank has moved quickly to put operational resilience back at the centre of the banking debate.

Frank Elderson, member of the ECB’s Executive Board and vice-chair of its Supervisory Board, has warned that frontier AI models are changing the cyber threat landscape by lowering barriers for attackers and increasing the speed of exploitation.

The ECB has also said banks need multi-year investment in people, systems and governance, rather than a narrow technology fix.

Elderson’s message was blunt:

That distinction matters as regulators do not appear to be treating Mythos as a panic event, but as evidence that long-standing cyber weaknesses may need to be fixed faster.

Banks have spent years building resilience frameworks, running cyber stress tests and improving incident response.

But the arrival of models that can find and exploit weaknesses more efficiently changes the timetable.

The attacker-defender race is becoming asymmetric

The uncomfortable part of the Mythos story is that the same capability can help both sides.

For defenders, a model that can inspect code, find vulnerabilities and help prioritise remediation is valuable.

It could help banks scan old systems, review third-party code, test internal tools and find weaknesses before attackers do. It could also reduce the dependence on scarce human cyber specialists.

But cybersecurity is not a one-sided contest. If similar AI capabilities spread beyond a handful of controlled labs, attackers could benefit just as quickly as defenders.

Unlike banks and security teams, attackers do not need to secure an entire system; they only need to find a single weak entry point.

Anthropic’s own description of Mythos underlines the significance of the capability:

“Mythos Preview is capable of identifying and then exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser.”

That does not mean every attacker has access to Mythos as Anthropic has framed the model as restricted and controlled.

But the direction of travel is clear enough for banks to plan around.

A new risk premium for old technology

Mythos does not make finance unsafe overnight, as the sector remains one of the most heavily regulated and cyber-aware parts of the global economy.

Banks have spent heavily on security, and many already use AI to detect fraud, monitor threats and protect customers.

Still, the model is a warning about speed.

Finance has become more digital, more outsourced and more interconnected, and while that has made the system efficient, it has also created shared points of failure.

If AI compresses the time it takes to find and exploit weaknesses, then old patching cycles, slow vendor processes and fragmented accountability become more dangerous.

The winners will not simply be the firms with access to the best model. They will be the ones who can turn faster discovery into faster, safer decisions.

For Wall Street and the wider financial system, Mythos is therefore not just a cyber story. It is a story about operational resilience becoming financial resilience.

In a market built on trust, the ability to keep running under digital stress may become as important as the ability to absorb losses on a balance sheet.

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The long-awaited public debut of SpaceX has finally arrived, triggering one of the sharpest divisions among market experts in recent memory.

The Elon Musk-led space company is expected to price its initial public offering on Thursday before beginning trading on Friday.

With an anticipated valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would instantly become one of the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies.

Investor appetite appears overwhelming.

Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the company has attracted more than $250 billion in demand despite seeking to raise around $75 billion.

According to the report, the offering is between three-and-a-half and four times oversubscribed.

The extraordinary demand reflects investor enthusiasm for a company that has transformed commercial space launches, built the world’s largest satellite internet network through Starlink, and is pursuing ambitious plans ranging from orbital data centers to eventual human settlement on Mars.

Yet despite the excitement, analysts remain deeply divided on whether the stock’s valuation is justified.

Tesla bull sees a 22% upside from the offering price

Among the more optimistic voices is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who initiated coverage of SpaceX without a formal rating but assigned a price target of $165 per share.

While investors know the IPO is expected to price at $135, Ferragu noted that uncertainty remains around where the stock could ultimately trade once it reaches public markets.

His $165 target implies roughly 22% upside from the offering price and values the company at approximately $2.3 trillion.

Ferragu’s outlook is built on aggressive long-term growth assumptions.

According to estimates cited by ratings aggregators, he expects SpaceX to generate about $195 billion in revenue and $65 billion in operating profit by 2030.

Those forecasts place SpaceX at roughly 35 times projected 2030 operating profit, a significant premium to technology giants such as Alphabet, which currently trades at around 13 times estimated 2030 operating profit.

The comparison is appropriate because both companies are heavily investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Alphabet is spending aggressively on AI data centers, while SpaceX is pursuing a more unconventional vision.

Musk has argued that data centers deployed in orbit could eventually become cheaper and more efficient to operate than facilities on Earth.

Embedded within Ferragu’s valuation is an estimated $650 billion contribution from Starlink-related businesses and another $575 billion tied to AI opportunities.

If those initiatives develop successfully, he believes SpaceX shares could ultimately be worth as much as $330.

The analyst is well known for taking long-term bullish positions on Musk-led companies.

He currently maintains a Buy rating on Tesla and holds one of Wall Street’s highest price targets on the electric vehicle maker at $600.

Although formal analyst coverage is still limited because most Wall Street banks involved in the IPO must wait before publishing research, alternative markets have offered clues about investor sentiment.

Late Wednesday, SpaceX-linked share futures traded around $163 on cryptocurrency trading platform Hyperliquid.

The contracts, known as perpetual futures, allow investors to speculate on stock prices using leverage and have emerged as an informal price-discovery mechanism ahead of the IPO.

The futures pricing aligns closely with Ferragu’s valuation and suggests many investors expect shares to trade well above the offering price once public trading begins.

Whether that enthusiasm holds after the opening session remains to be seen.

Morningstar warns investors may be overpaying

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens has emerged as one of the most vocal skeptics, arguing that SpaceX is significantly overvalued at its IPO price.

In a note published this week, Owens assigned the company a fair value estimate of $63 per share, roughly 53% below the reported offering price.

According to Owens, the gap between his valuation and the IPO price largely reflects investors paying for highly speculative future projects rather than the company’s existing operations.

While acknowledging SpaceX’s technological leadership, he argued that much of the offering price resembles an option premium tied to ambitious initiatives such as orbital AI data centers and future Mars infrastructure.

“The more likely you believe cost-competitive orbital AI data centers will be, the closer to the offering price a reweighted valuation of SpaceX gets, and those extra projects could be seen as free options,” he wrote.

The central disagreement between bulls and bears appears to revolve around whether SpaceX can successfully build profitable data centers in space.

Owens believes these projects have a major influence on investor expectations.

Under his most optimistic scenario, SpaceX could eventually achieve a valuation of $1.97 trillion, equivalent to about $154 per share.

That outcome assumes the company proves orbital data centers are both technically feasible and economically superior to terrestrial facilities.

However, he noted that scientific uncertainty remains substantial.

His base-case scenario assumes a “minimum viable product” outcome with a 50% probability.

Under that framework, orbital data centres work but remain constrained in scale, allowing SpaceX to capture roughly 4% of global AI computing capacity and generate approximately $47 billion in annual AI-related revenue by 2035.

The most pessimistic outcome, which Owens assigns a 43% probability, assumes orbital data centers fail to deliver meaningful advantages or never become commercially viable.

“We surmise that the company, having invested tens of billions to find this out, would cut bait on the project sometime around 2028, the way management walked away from plans to build multiple small-car factories at Tesla,” wrote Owens.

Lockup structure adds another layer of uncertainty

Owens also pointed to SpaceX’s unusual lockup structure as a potential risk for early investors.

Unlike traditional IPOs, where insiders typically face a six-month restriction on selling shares, SpaceX will allow certain existing shareholders, excluding Musk, to sell portions of their holdings within weeks of the listing and periodically through December.

That structure could increase share supply sooner than investors are accustomed to seeing in newly listed companies.

As a result, Owens believes patient investors may eventually receive a more attractive entry point.

“We think long-term investors eager to participate in SpaceX’s future endeavors and potential success will have opportunities to do so with more margin of safety than the initial offering is likely to provide,” he wrote.

For now, the SpaceX IPO represents far more than a public listing.

It is a referendum on some of the boldest technological ambitions in business today.

Whether investors are buying the future of space exploration, AI infrastructure, and Mars colonisation, or simply paying too much for a dream, may become one of the market’s defining debates in the years ahead.

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Intel shares INTC surged 4% in premarket trading after Bank of America upgraded the semiconductor company to Buy from Underperform and raised its price target to $135 from $96.

The brokerage cited growing demand for central processing units (CPUs) and Intel’s positioning to benefit from the rise of agentic artificial intelligence.

The upgrade comes as analysts increasingly focus on the role of CPUs in supporting next-generation AI systems, alongside the continued expansion of advanced semiconductor manufacturing and packaging technologies.

BofA raises server CPU market forecast

Following discussions with industry executives and customers at the BofA Global Tech Conference, the brokerage increased its estimate for the global server CPU market to more than $170 billion, up from a previous forecast of $125 billion.

The revised outlook implies nearly five-fold growth and a 37% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030.

According to BofA, the emergence of agentic AI systems capable of carrying out complex tasks with limited human input is expected to create substantial opportunities for both traditional x86 chipmakers and companies developing ARM-based processors.

As part of its revised outlook, the firm also increased its price target on AMD to $560 from $500, implying nearly 24% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.

Alphabet order highlights Intel foundry progress

Separate industry developments have added to optimism surrounding Intel’s long-term strategy.

A significant commitment from Alphabet’s recent plans to manufacture Tensor Processing Units through Intel Foundry.

The plan is being viewed as a major validation of Intel’s efforts to expand its contract manufacturing business.

According to The Information report, Alphabet has committed to a three-million-unit TPU order for 2028, representing an estimated 50% of Google’s projected TPU output for that year.

The decision appears to be driven by both technology and supply chain considerations.

Intel’s Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge (EMIB) packaging technology has reportedly achieved yield rates above 90%, positioning it as an alternative to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s CoWoS packaging platform, which faces capacity constraints amid strong AI-related demand.

Google’s Gemini AI platform now serves more than 900 million monthly active users, increasing the company’s need for computing capacity and manufacturing diversification.

Foundry momentum and execution risks remain key

Industry interest in Intel’s foundry business appears to be expanding beyond Alphabet.

Nvidia is evaluating Intel’s 18A process node for a future multi-die graphics processor, while Tesla has committed to Intel’s 14A process technology for custom silicon used in its Terafab AI computing complex in Austin.

These developments are occurring amid broader efforts by US technology companies to reduce supply chain dependence on Taiwan and increase domestic semiconductor production.

Despite the positive developments, execution remains a central consideration for investors.

Intel must successfully deliver its process technology roadmap and manufacturing capabilities at scale to convert potential opportunities into sustained revenue growth.

Recent financial results have also supported the bullish narrative.

Intel reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $13.58 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by more than $1.1 billion, with strength in its Data Center and AI division contributing to the outperformance.

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Webull stock price jumped by over 10% on Wednesday as investors bought the dip and as the options market pointed to more bullish positioning. BULL jumped to $6.12, up by 15% from its lowest point this week. 

Webull stock jumped amid bullish options positioning

Webull, a top Robinhood-like company, jumped on Wednesday as investors bought the dip. This rally coincided with the gains across the industry, with Robinhood jumping by over 10% and Interactive Broker rising by 5%.

The rally also happened amid bullish positioning in the options market. Data shows that the put volume stands at 10,240, while its open interest is at 6.455. Call volume, on the other hand, stands at 40,000, while its open interest is 31,235. This means that the put/call open interest stands at 0.21.

Webull has some solid fundamentals even as its stock has slumped by over 92% from its highest point in April last year. The most recent results showed that its revenue jumped by 36% to $159.9 million. This growth, however, was offset by a 65% increase in operating expenses, which pushed its net loss to over $21 million. 

The company has continued to add more users in the past few months. It added 27.6 million in the first quarter of this year, up from 24.1 million in the same period last year. Its funded accounts have jumped to 5.11 million.

The company is seeing strong growth across various areas, including the options business. Its equity notional volume jumped to $261 billion from $128 billion in the same period last year.

Analysts are optimistic that the company will continue doing well in the coming years. The average estimate among analysts is that its revenue will jump by 25% this year to $714 million, followed by 25% increase to $894 million. 

This growth will be driven by the US division, which will benefit from the decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to end the pattern day trader (PDT) rule. This action will likely lead to more activity by small-scale traders. 

The company has also continued to acquire international licenses in key areas like Hong Kong, Canada, and the European Union. 

BULL stock price technical analysis

Webull stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the BULL stock price has been under pressure in the past few months as its losses have jumped. It bottomed at $4.52 in April and then rebounded to a high of $7.53 on April 21. These gains were limited and the stock retreated to a low of $5.40. 

Webull stock formed a descending channel, which resembles a falling wedge pattern, a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis. It is attempting to cross the 50-day.

If this happens, the next key target to watch will be at $7.53, the highest point in April this year. On the other hand, a move below the key support level at $5.36 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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US stocks opened higher on Thursday as investors returned to beaten-down technology shares following a sharp selloff, though gains were tempered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 246 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.29%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.28%.

The rebound came after Wednesday’s steep decline, when major Wall Street indexes fell more than 1% amid another selloff in semiconductor stocks.

The S&P 500 has now fallen about 4% since reaching a record closing high in early June, while technology stocks have entered correction territory after declining 10% from their recent peak.

Chip stocks rebound after sharp selloff

Semiconductor shares led Thursday’s gains. Nvidia, Intel and Micron Technology advanced between 0.62% and 8%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF climbed about 3%.

Intel received an additional boost after Bank of America upgraded the company to Buy from Underperform.

The brokerage cited growing demand for central processing units and opportunities tied to the rise of agentic artificial intelligence.

The sector’s recovery follows a difficult week for chip stocks.

The semiconductor ETF had already suffered a 10% decline on Friday, prompting some investors to question whether the powerful rally fueled by artificial intelligence demand had run its course.

Market participants are also looking ahead to the highly anticipated market debut of SpaceX on Friday.

The company is expected to be valued at roughly $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion, making it the largest public debut on record.

Some traders believe recent weakness in semiconductor shares may partly reflect investors raising cash to participate in the offering.

Iran tensions push oil higher

Despite the rebound in equities, geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on sentiment.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose nearly 1% to around $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump signaled potential military action against Iran.

Trump said the United States will hit Iran “very hard tonight” and later stated on Truth Social: “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.”

The comments followed additional US military action in the region. US Central Command said it launched more “self-defense strikes” against Iran late Wednesday at Trump’s direction.

The escalation caused stock futures to trim some of their earlier gains as investors assessed the potential economic consequences of higher energy prices.

Economic data and sector rotation remain in focus

Investors also digested fresh economic data showing producer prices increased more than expected in May.

The producer price index rose 1.1%, above economists’ expectations of 0.7%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, came in at 0.4%.

Separately, new claims for unemployment benefits increased modestly last week.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its June 17 policy meeting, although markets continue to price in at least one quarter-point rate increase before year-end.

Outside the semiconductor sector, Oracle shares fell 12% after the company unveiled plans to raise an additional $20 billion in equity and debt financing to support artificial intelligence infrastructure investments.

Meanwhile, corporate travel platform Navan surged 11% after raising its full-year revenue and operating income forecasts, citing strong business travel demand and continued growth among enterprise customers.

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The US tech sector has had a torrid time of late.

Ever since Broadcom issued some disappointing forward guidance, along with a solid, consensus-beating first-quarter result, tech stocks have been on the back foot.

Then, just as investors were starting to ask if the US non-farm payroll release was still the most important monthly data release, they got an answer in the affirmative.

The selloff that followed Broadcom’s earnings was exacerbated by last Friday’s non-farm payroll update.

This was much stronger than anticipated, and the news boosted the probability that the US Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points by the end of the year.

It’s worth remembering that the consensus expectation just a few months ago was that the Fed would announce two 25-basis points worth of-point cuts in 2026.

This was despite little evidence that inflation had truly topped, and a certain reluctance by Jerome Powell, the Fed’s Chair at that time, to reduce borrowing costs further after Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024.

President Trump put immense pressure on the Fed Chair, repeatedly criticizing him for not cutting rates, and even musing that he was considering sacking him.

In fairness, the rate cuts that had happened at the Powell Fed were considered by some to have a political angle, and not one that was particularly helpful to the president.

But then came the war with Iran and an uptick in inflation, which Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, has to deal with.

Mr Warsh will preside over his first FOMC monetary policy meeting next week.

While there’s no chance of any change to the Fed Funds rate, this is a significant event.

Not only will Kevin Warsh hold a press conference after the rate announcement, but it is also a quarterly meeting, which means that the FOMC will release its Summary of Economic Projections.

In this, FOMC members give their forecasts for the Fed Funds rate, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth for the rest of the year and beyond.

It will provide the first opportunity for analysts and investors to see just how closely, or not, the Fed’s projections under Warsh line up with market expectations.

But before then, investors have other pressing issues. The tech-led selloff hasn’t eased up yet.

Sure, there have been a few bounces, but these have been sold into so far, suggesting that investors aren’t yet ready to buy the dip with much conviction.

It has been said that the selloff has been driven by traders anxious to realize funds so they can invest in the SpaceX IPO on Friday, 12th June.

There may be something in this, particularly as OpenAI and Anthropic are also coming to market, most likely after the summer.

And the US stock market was/is ripe for some profit-taking.

There has been an extraordinary run up in tech stocks, led by the chip sector, since the end of March.

Not only did this see sharp rebounds in market leaders like Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, and TSMC, but it also saw some overlooked chip stocks wake up from a long hibernation.

Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology, and Marvell Technology Group have surged.

In little over two months, these stocks gained 167%, 240%, and 283%, respectively.

No wonder there’s been some profit-taking. Anyone clever or fortunate enough to be on board these stocks earlier this year would be mad not to take some cash off the table.

The question now is whether the selloff is yet another ‘buy the dip’ opportunity, or a tremor that warns of trouble ahead.

(This is a fortnightly column by David Morrison. He is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)

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