With the November 5 presidential election fast approaching, a new analysis has been released warning of the declining democratic accountability in the US and its potential impact on the power of the American people’s voice.
The report, titled “Democratic Distortions and a Struggling State: The United States on the Eve of the 2024 Presidential Election”, was conducted by researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), the Berggruen Institute in Los Angeles, and the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. It highlights critical governance challenges that threaten the efficacy of the US political system.
According to the report, both democratic accountability and state capacity have significantly declined in the US since 2015, particularly in key swing states. This decline is reflected in the areas of electoral, social, and institutional accountability, with electoral accountability scores dropping from 92 points (out of 100) in 2015 to 82 points in 2021.
“Declining democratic accountability means that the power of the American people’s voice will be diminished – both in terms of electoral voice and the power of social institutions to check elected officials once in office,” the authors of the report state. They also note that a potential second term for President Donald Trump would pose major challenges for the already struggling electoral system.
The report also highlights significant declines in democratic norms at the state level, particularly in swing states like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. North Carolina, in particular, has seen a drastic drop in democratic norms, declining from near 100 in the mid-2000s to less than 25 in 2018. This decline is occurring in the context of “well-documented crackdowns on voting rights” that have reached an “unprecedented” level in 2023, according to the authors.
The report also raises concerns about low voter turnout and the outsized role of money in politics, which has marginalized the voices of average citizens. It also notes that while public spending on healthcare in the US is high, it has not translated into improved outcomes, raising questions about sustainability and the rising public debt. Both presidential candidates are expected to expand the deficit, which could have implications for long-term public goods provision.
In addition to declining democratic accountability, the report also highlights a broad and steady erosion of state capacity since 2000, particularly in the areas of fiscal capacity, coordination capacity, and delivery capacity. This weakened state capacity can negatively affect the government’s ability to respond to crises or natural disasters, leading to frustration and anger among the public.
The report concludes that while a Democratic Party-led administration may address these issues better than a second Trump presidency, both scenarios face significant obstacles. The researchers believe that a potential Harris administration may reverse the declines in state capacity, but many factors could limit the likelihood of this outcome.
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