ONLY OLD-FASHIONED (aka “analog”) people still keep desk diaries with two pages in one week for noting appointments and other transactions like purchase of stocks. So what if it’s lately been mostly blank since the cellphone notes all the appointments and reminders, with alarms. The calendar is still like comfort food — nice to have around.
Economists note the market optimism that a new calendar brings. It is called the “January Effect.” There is the accountant’s report for the just finished fiscal year when all the assets are booked “at market.” Then, there are the new challenges for the business, maybe a change in leadership. All these are captured in the “annual report” that comes out after the first quarter of the new year.
Even if January is not really a new beginning but just a continuation of time, the artificial divide of a new year turns the page. The feeling of a new start is psychological, even if it is an accounting divide as well. Current problems linger and somehow the new month does not start from zero but some other big number, sometimes negative. The new year is not like the old magic slate where you just lifted the page and the blank one was restored, waiting to be written on.
It is not just corporations that are affected by the January Effect. Relationships too have the illusion that the year is a new starting line, even when unresolved issues of fiscal irresponsibility, thoughtlessness, and verbal cruelty persevere. That’s why couples sometimes make joint new year’s resolutions — I will not forget to send you flowers on Valentine’s even if it costs me a week’s salary. Since there is no formal review of these promises like the budget process in a corporation, commitments slide and come up only when a fiery exchange of words occurs. Also, there is no variance analysis acceptable to justify why something has been done or not done.
The January Effect provides a healthy dose of optimism. It gives a boost of energy, a sense of temporary invincibility that this new year, contrary to the historical evidence of other years, will somehow be different in a positive way. The goal of fireworks is not just to exorcise the bad things of the outgoing year (even if the loud noise and staccato bursts disturb the neighbors more than the evil elves) but also to build a firewall between one year and the next.
We seldom now see the old representation of the old man exiting the scene wearing the sash of the old year — how did he get so ancient-looking in one year? That guy needs some AI uplift — and the baby, often with a horn for blowing, walking forth as the personification of the new year. Both characters wear sashes to denote the old and new year.
The January Effect often refers to the stock market and the economy. It seems that listed companies naturally get a bump in price and volume in the first month. It’s not all about Trump.
Still, on a personal basis, the January Effect can refer to a list of to-dos including such goals as weight loss, eating healthier, and restarting relationships that blew up when gifts were opened. These lists are not necessarily written down or even adhered to. By April the resolutions may have already been forgotten.
The new calendar also ushers in elections. The busy five months ahead will fill billboards and airwaves with names and faces of candidates and their slogans, along with the advocacies of never-before-heard causes to accommodate celebrities with no links at all with what their parties seem to be promoting, including safe mining, clean air, health coverage. Dynasties too will again slug it out with each other.
January is named after the Roman deity Janus with his two faces joined back-to-back, looking back and looking ahead. This original January Effect may be more realistic. We may only have the illusion of a fresh beginning… just the change of a new year to remember when writing checks to pay for condominium dues and car stickers.
A new milestone does not always start with a new calendar. Maybe things turn for the better just before Easter… or the next calendar.
Tony Samson is chairman and CEO of TOUCH xda
