Marvell (MRVL) has gained about 215.72% year to date at the time of writing, Wednesday afternoon, June 24. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 index (SPY) is up about 7.41% in the same period.
The semiconductor giant has rallied thanks to its role in the AI boom.
Positive news driving Marvell’s stock includes:
- Strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report in March
- Amazon’s extension of its partnership with Anthropic
- Marvell’s acquisition of Polariton Technologies
- Intel’s first-quarter earnings boosting confidence in the semiconductor sector
- Nvidiainvesting $2 billion and entered into a partnership with Marvell
- AMD disclosing a $6.5 million equity stake in Marvell
But news that really propelled Marvell stock this year was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang saying he believes that it is the “next trillion-dollar company,” as reported by CNBC.
The stock soared 32.52% on June 2 and continued to climb, hitting its highest closing price ever of $316.43 on June 4.
It officially joined the S&P 500 on June 22, as reported by TheStreet Pro.
Marvell is currently trading 4.11% down today at $267.56, representing a 15.44% drop from its highest closing price. The drop isn’t surprising, as tech stocks are currently experiencing a sell-off.
Despite the current sentiment, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team have some good news. In a research note shared with me, they revised their semiconductor industry forecast and raised their Marvell stock price target.
Bank of America revises its semiconductor industry forecast
The team said the AI industry is moving to address structural and physical constraints, having previously had to defend return on investment.
Analysts raised their 2030 semiconductor industry total addressable market (TAM) to $2.7 trillion, implying a +28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030, up from $2.3 trillion and a +23% CAGR previously.
The team noted that the semiconductor industry took approximately 50 years to generate its first $1 trillion in sales, adding that they expect AI to help add another $1 trillion in just the next five years.
More tech stocks:
- Bank of America resets Intel stock price target
- Morgan Stanley resets Nvidia stock forecast after key event
- Bank of America resets Broadcom stock price target after earnings
Analysts said that of the approximately $2.7 trillion total semiconductor TAM outlook by 2030, they estimate the core semiconductors (non-memory) outlook of approximately $1.1 trillion, growing at approximately 14% CAGR from $567 billion in 2025.
They estimate growth driven by server silicon (+24% CAGR) and wired communications (+15% CAGR) caused by AI-related chip and networking demand.
The team expects core semiconductors to grow 27% year over year in 2026.
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Bank of America raises Marvell stock price target
The team noted Marvell’s continued ramp in its key networking product lines, driven by a strong outlook for AI infrastructure deployments, combined with the upcoming adoption of Celestial AI-based co-packaged optics product lines.
Analysts hosted Marvell CEO Matt Murphy earlier this month at their 2026 Global Tech Conference. They said Murphy showed confidence in the ramps of two upcoming custom XPU projects with Amazon’s AWS (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as other projects that include NICs and CXL products.
Arya reiterated a buy rating for Marvell stock and raised the price target to $365 from $240, based on a 31x multiple of his 2030 pro forma EPS estimate of $15.04 (including stock-based compensation), discounted back two years.
He noted that his multiple is slightly higher than the 26x historical median, but justified by improved visibility for major customer application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) projects and a growing AI portfolio across networking and compute.
Bank of America analysts noted downside risks for Marvell:
- Loss of visibility in the key custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) projects
- Competition in AI compute
- Cyclical industry risks, including a potential slowdown in legacy storage, enterprise networking, and carrier markets
Upside potential:
- Faster-than-anticipated ramp/visibility in major custom ASIC projects
- Continued growth in the DSP-based pluggable market versus new LPO/LRO techs
- Share gains in emerging AEC/CPO/scale-up switch markets against incumbents
What do other analysts think, and how does Bank of America’s opinion compare? According to MarketBeat, 31 of the 37 analysts covering Marvell stock rate it a buy. Six give a hold rating. The average price target is $233.68.
Related: 5-star analyst sets jaw-dropping AMD stock price target
