Tesla stock gets a surprising SpaceX reset

Tesla’s (TSLA) fresh bull case lands at a strange moment for the stock.

Investors were anxiously waiting for a demand reset after concerns of some major EV competition, sluggish margins, and lackluster growth.

However, in a surprise turn of events, Tesla then beat Q2 delivery estimates by a wide margin, giving bulls a rare hard-data win before the next earnings test.

RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan is not stopping there.

In his latest price target revamp of Tesla stock, he shifts the focus from what Tesla just delivered to what it could become if SpaceX enters the valuation debate.

For perspective, over the past couple of years, Tesla has no longer been judged purely on vehicle sales, Robotaxi timing, or energy storage growth. The stock market is being asked to price the possibility of a much larger Musk-controlled ecosystem.

However, given Tesla stock’s “battleground” nature, does that make it more valuable, or simply more speculative?

Tesla’s new bull case is bigger than cars

According to TheFly, RBC Capital’s top analyst, Tom Narayan, just reframed Tesla as much closer to an AI infrastructure platform, with vehicles, batteries, chips, Robotaxis, humanoids, and possibly SpaceX all feeding into one massive Musk-led ecosystem.

Narayan raised his Tesla price target to $500 from $475 and kept a buy rating, arguing that recent talk of a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination has compelled investors to contemplate what a merged company could look like, especially if SpaceX acquired Tesla in an all-stock deal at a premium.

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For context, Narayan has a 65% success rate on Tesla stock, TipRanks confirmed, based on 79 ratings.

That would not be merely a financial transaction. In Narayan’s opinion, the logic would come from shared operations, chip development, Megapacks for data-center power needs, AI training capacity, fleet services, and deeper vertical integration.

In essence, Tesla becomes less of a carmaker and more like a hub for Musk’s AI and energy ambitions. Nevertheless, Narayan still sees global EV demand jumping and Tesla as the key brand in the space, but the upside case stretches beyond cars.

That makes the stock story bigger but also harder to value.

Speaking of value, based on Seeking Alpha data, Tesla stock looks stretched by almost any traditional earnings yardstick.

Its forward non-GAAP P/E ratio sits near 190, according to TradingView, more than 1,000% above the sector median, while its GAAP forward multiple is at a dizzying 296.

Tesla stock gained a new SpaceX angle in a bullish valuation call.

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Tesla’s SpaceX-linked bull case gets harder to ignore

Tesla now owns SpaceX shares: Tesla’s filing said its planned $2 billion xAI investment converted into SpaceX Class A stock, according to Yahoo Finance.
The core business just gave bulls cover: Tesla said it delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of storage in Q2, beating estimates by a huge margin, Yahoo Finance added.
AI compute is the new link: As MarketWatch reported, Musk announced Tesla would work with SpaceX on a one-terawatt compute hardware factory.
Commercial ties are already real: Tesla disclosed $143.3 million in 2025 revenue from SpaceX-related agreements, Electrek noted.
Capex shows the pivot: Tesla expects to spend more than $25 billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure, batteries, CyberCab, and Optimus, Reuters confirmed.

Robotaxi is still clearest Tesla-only upside story

The SpaceX angle is clearly the flashier part of the call, but Robotaxi is perhaps the clearest Tesla-only reason for the stock to work in the long term.

Narayan views the Robotaxi as Tesla’s strongest long-term opportunity, even before any SpaceX premium is added. It’s essentially a clean way for investors to value Tesla using something within the company’s control, rather than a possible all-stock merger that has not been formally proposed.

Narayan’s framework points to a $4.2 trillion Robotaxi market, where Tesla would not need to dominate the entire category to create meaningful value.

Even a small share could be enough to support the lofty valuation metrics at which Tesla is trading, provided it can scale its fleet, prove the technology, and turn autonomy into a recurring revenue stream.

Interestingly, he’s not the only one beating the drum on Tesla’s autonomous future.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is even more aggressive, forecasting that Robotaxis might account for nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings by 2029.

On top of that, Tesla’s Robotaxi business could potentially be worth a massive standalone value driver, with revenue reaching $250 billion by 2035 and potentially supporting $2.75 trillion in equity value, according to Investing.com, citing Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner.

Wall Street price targets for Tesla stock

Wedbush: $600: Dan Ives maintained an outperform rating, with Tesla’s AI and autonomy push central to the bull case.
JPMorgan: $475: Rajat Gupta upgraded Tesla to neutral from underweight, citing autonomy, robotics, and a broader hardware-software valuation reset.
Bank of America: $460: Analyst Alexander Perry has a buy rating, tied largely to Tesla’s potential lead in Robotaxis and autonomous mobility.
Morgan Stanley: $415. The firm maintained an equal-weight rating following Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion, signaling a more cautious stance near current levels.
Goldman Sachs: $375: Goldman maintained a neutral rating, even after raising its Q2 delivery expectations before Tesla’s delivery beat.
Sources: Wedbush, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs price targets from Benzinga, Barron’s/Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, and TradingView/GuruFocus reports