GE Vernova’s AI power trade has one weak link

GE Vernova (GEV) raised its 2026 revenue and free-cash-flow forecasts on July 22, but a widening loss in its Wind business sent shares lower.

The stock fell about 6.3% to $1,011 in midday trading July 22 after dropping as low as $964.16 earlier in the session.

Its second-quarter revenue rose 22% to $11.1 billion, according to a company press release, and orders climbed 88% organically to $24.2 billion. Power and Electrification led the growth as utilities and data-center developers sought more gas turbines, transformers, switchgear, and grid equipment.

Wind orders fell about 40% from a year earlier, Reuters reported, while the segment’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization loss widened to $275 million from $165 million.

Data-center-related orders have exceeded $5 billion this year, more than double GE Vernova’s total for 2025. Those orders are filling the Power and Electrification backlog, while the larger Wind loss is limiting companywide margin improvement.

Data-center demand is filling GE Vernova’s backlog

AI data centers require a steady supply of electricity for servers, cooling systems, and networking equipment.

Connecting those facilities to the grid may also require new substations, transformers, switchgear, and transmission equipment.

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GE Vernova supplies equipment across the system. Its Power segment supplies gas turbines and related services, while Electrification provides grid hardware and software for moving and managing electricity.

Power orders rose 135% during the second quarter, driven by demand for gas equipment and services, Reuters confirmed. Electrification revenue also increased by 68% as customers invested in grid capacity.

The company’s backlog of gas-powered equipment and slot-reservation agreements grew from 100 gigawatts at the end of the first quarter to 116 gigawatts, the press release stated. Management now expects to have at least 125 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract by the end of 2026.

We remain on track to deliver 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in the third quarter of 2026.

GE Vernova plans to further increase annual gas-turbine production capacity to 24 gigawatts in 2028 and 30 gigawatts in 2030.

Its total backlog reached $176 billion after rising by $13 billion during the quarter, the company indicated. Much of that work will be delivered over several years, giving the company a large base of contracted future business. It also requires GE Vernova to expand manufacturing capacity and deliver equipment on schedule.

Wind losses spoiled the earnings reaction

GE Vernova’s Wind orders fell about 40% from a year earlier as demand for onshore equipment weakened and costs tied to offshore projects increased.

The segment’s EBITDA loss widened by $110 million to $275 million, according to Reuters. The deterioration reduced part of the earnings growth generated by Power and Electrification.

Companywide adjusted EBITDA rose to about $1.25 billion but fell short of analysts’ roughly $1.28 billion estimate, according to Reuters, citing LSEG.

The company also left its 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin forecast unchanged at 12% to 14%, even as it raised its revenue and free-cash-flow forecasts.

William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer told Reuters that investors may have expected another quarter in which GE Vernova exceeded EBITDA estimates and raised its margin forecast.

The unchanged margin range and larger Wind loss could explain why the stock fell, despite order growth and a higher revenue outlook.

Key numbers from GE Vernova’s quarter

$24.2 billion: Second-quarter orders
88%: Organic order growth
$176 billion: Total backlog
More than $5 billion: Data-center-related orders year to date
$45.5 billion to $46.5 billion: New 2026 revenue forecast
$11.5 billion to $12.5 billion: New 2026 free-cash-flow forecast
12% to 14%: Unchanged adjusted EBITDA margin forecast
40%: Year-over-year decline in Wind orders
$275 million: Wind segment EBITDA loss

GE Vernova’s adjusted EBITDA rose to about $1.25 billion but fell short of analysts’ roughly $1.28 billion estimate.

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GE Vernova must turn its backlog into margin gains

GE Vernova increased its 2026 revenue forecast to between $45.5 billion and $46.5 billion, up from $44.5 billion to $45.5 billion.

It also raised its free-cash-flow outlook to $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, up from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

The company generated $5.1 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter, more than it produced during all of 2025. The higher cash-flow outlook gives GE Vernova greater capacity to fund production expansion and execute its $176 billion backlog.

Margin improvement will also require the company to prevent Wind losses from offsetting earnings growth in Power and Electrification.

Investors will be watching three developments over the next several quarters: continued growth in data-center orders, progress converting the gas-equipment backlog into revenue, and a narrower Wind loss.

GE Vernova’s margin expansion now depends on efficiently delivering that backlog while reducing the earnings drag from Wind.