Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has turned into one of the best comeback trades of 2026.
Shares closed at $1,196.03 on July 24, up nearly 11% year to date after a rough start dragged the stock below $900 in the spring.
Lilly shares have climbed about 39% since the company’s first-quarter report, according to Goldman Sachs.
Now the bank is telling clients where the next move comes from, and it is not the product most headlines are chasing.
What Goldman Sachs expects from Eli Lilly’s second-quarter earnings
Goldman Sachs is holding a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1,283 on Eli Lilly heading into the Aug. 5 report, Yahoo Finance reported.
That target sits about 7% above where the stock closed on July 24.
For the second quarter, Goldman expects $20.8 billion in revenue, roughly in line with the $20.5 billion Visible Alpha consensus, and adjusted earnings of $5.83 a share.
The bank’s forecast reflects a $2.8 billion acquired research and development charge, which weighs on the reported number.
Eli Lilly confirms Aug. 5 as the date for its second-quarter earnings call.
Why Foundayo’s soft start may not sink Eli Lilly stock
Foundayo is Lilly’s new oral obesity pill, and its debut has been slower than Wall Street hoped.
Goldman projects just $40 million in second-quarter Foundayo sales, against a consensus near $100 million.
Foundayo (orforglipron) is the only approved once-daily obesity pill with no food or water restrictions, Lilly noted when the drug won FDA approval in April.
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Weekly prescriptions for Foundayo have stalled for five straight weeks after an early peak, Jefferies noted, citing IQVIA data.
Goldman cut its 2026 U.S. Foundayo estimate to $755 million from $1.1 billion to reflect the slower sales.
The bank still expects Foundayo to be a top question on the Aug. 5 call, yet it argues the stock’s fate rests elsewhere.
The number Goldman Sachs says will move Eli Lilly stock
Goldman’s note says the size of Lilly’s next guidance raise is the single most important variable for how the stock reacts on report day.
Lilly currently guides to $83 billion to $85 billion in 2026 revenue. Goldman sees room for a raise of up to $1 billion and models $86.1 billion for the year.
In plain terms, guidance is the company’s own revenue forecast. When Lilly lifts it, investors read that as management confidence backed by real demand.
Goldman flags one catch. Its client conversations suggest many investors already expect a raise, so some of that optimism may be priced in.
That sets up a familiar earnings-season trap, where a good result still disappoints because expectations ran higher.
How OUS Mounjaro became the real engine for LLY stock
The second driver Goldman highlights is Lilly drug Mounjaro, sold outside the United States.
The bank forecasts $4.95 billion in second-quarter OUS Mounjaro sales, about 10% above the $4.5 billion consensus.
OUS simply means “outside the U.S.,” and this line has carried Lilly’s gains for several quarters running.
Mounjaro already holds roughly 60% of the incretin market in countries such as Brazil and Korea, Morgan Stanley noted in May.
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Domestically sold Mounjaro is steadier, with Goldman modeling $4.4 billion, which is close to consensus.
Zepbound is the third leg of Lilly’s obesity lineup, and early signs point to faster volume growth since the July 1 Medicare change.
The takeaway for readers is direct. International demand, not the new pill, is what analysts are watching for surprises.
Eli Lilly stock versus the market and its rival
Lilly’s rebound stands out against both the broader market and its closest competitor.
Here is how LLY has traded in 2026:
Eli Lilly vs. key benchmarks, 2026
- Eli Lilly: up about 11% year to date, according to Google Finance
- Shares up roughly 39% since first-quarter results, according to Goldman Sachs
- Rival Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic, has struggled, and the two are now in a legal fight over advertising claims.
The gap reflects a simple reality. Lilly’s obesity and diabetes franchise keeps winning customers from rivals, CNBC noted.
Lilly holds about 60% of the combined U.S. GLP-1 market.
What Eli Lilly investors should watch on August 5
Several things still need to break Lilly’s way for the bull case to hold.
Watch these signals when the company reports:
- The guidance raise. A lift toward Goldman’s $86.1 billion would confirm demand is outrunning lower U.S. prices.
- OUS Mounjaro. A beat above $4.5 billion keeps the main profit engine intact.
- Medicare traction. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began July 1, letting eligible Part D patients pay about $50 a month.
- Foundayo’s trajectory. Investors want signs the pill’s flat prescription trend is turning.
Goldman also points to pipeline risk. The firm noted that retatrutide, a next-generation obesity candidate, saw its filing timeline slip to the first quarter of 2027 from late 2026.
The risks that could still hit Eli Lilly stock
Goldman lists the main threats: alarger drop in obesity-drug pricing, market-share losses to competitors, and weak clinical data on pipeline drugs.
Pricing is the risk to be most cautious about. According to Lilly‘s earnings report, U.S. pricesfell 13% in the first quarter even as volume surged.
There is also a demand risk further out. A survey this year found some large employers may drop GLP-1 coverage in 2027. That would affect both Zepbound and Foundayo.
Anyone weighing LLY should size the position to their own risk tolerance, since stocks priced for perfection fall hard when a quarter disappoints.
The bottom line for Eli Lilly stock
Goldman Sachs is still bullish on Eli Lilly, holding its Buy rating and $1,283 target, which implies modest gains from current levels.
But the bank is steering investors away from the obvious storyline, since a soft Foundayo quarter is already widely expected.
The real test on Aug. 5 is whether Lilly raises guidance enough to satisfy a market that already expects good news, and whether international Mounjaro sales keep beating forecasts.
If both land, the 2026 comeback has room to run. If the guidance raise isn’t high enough, even a solid quarter could stall the stock.
For everyday investors, watch the raise and the overseas numbers, not just the new pill that owns the headlines.
