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Warren Buffett’s biggest bet has a dividend secret

by Invest Daily Pro
September 3, 2026
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Warren Buffett’s biggest bet has a dividend secret
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When people picture a Warren Buffett dividend stock, they probably imagine something stodgy: a soda company, a railroad, an insurer with a decades-long payout streak.

Apple does not fit that mold, and its 0.4% dividend yield looks almost like an afterthought next to the payouts income investors typically chase.

Yet Apple remains Berkshire Hathaway’s largest equity position, and dismissing it as a dividend stock because of that modest yield may be a bigger mistake than it looks.

Why Apple’s ecosystem keeps the growth story alive

Buffett bought Apple because of the ecosystem, not the dividend.

Buy an iPhone, and you are probably not switching. You upgrade every couple of years, add a few subscriptions, spend something on the App Store, and each of those transactions carries a margin the hardware business can’t touch.

The numbers back that up. Apple’s fiscal third quarter ended June 2026 produced $109.4 billion in revenue, up 16% from a year earlier. Diluted EPS came in at $2.02, up 29% year over year. Quartz reported it was Apple’s strongest June quarter on record.

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Apple has also taken deliberate steps to widen its ecosystem to price-sensitive buyers. The MacBook Neo, an entry-level laptop starting at $599, has drawn strong early demand, particularly from first-time Mac buyers who previously might have chosen a cheaper Windows machine or Chromebook instead, MacRumors reported.

To lower the barrier further, Apple launched Apple Upgrade in July, a leasing and subscription program built with Klarna that lets customers finance an iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple Watch over monthly payments.

Mac leases start at $24.99 a month, giving Apple another lever to pull new customers into its ecosystem, CNBC reported.

The buyback math that actually helps dividend investors

Critics of Apple as a dividend stock often point to how much cash the company funnels into share buybacks instead of dividend payments.

Apple spent $82 billion on repurchases over the past four quarters through June and has cut its total share count by roughly 45% since 2012, according to The Motley Fool.

That should not necessarily scare dividend investors away. A shrinking share count means Apple’s existing profits get divided among fewer shares, which mechanically lifts earnings per share and gives the company more room to raise its dividend over time even without much growth in total net income.

Apple has already been putting that flexibility to use. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share earlier this year and added another $100 billion to its buyback authorization in the same announcement, according to The Motley Fool. Despite the modest headline yield, the payout represents just 12% of analysts’ expected 2026 earnings, leaving substantial room for future increases.

Related: Warren Buffett has a stark message for stock market investors

Wall Street’s growth expectations back up that room to grow. Goldman Sachs raised its Apple price target to $370 ahead of Q3 earnings, maintaining a Buy rating and citing growing optimism around the iPhone replacement cycle and AI efforts.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan holds a $380 price target based on 37 times his calendar 2027 EPS estimate of $10.32.

Morgan Stanley has separately projected fiscal 2027 earnings per share of $10.23, roughly 7% above the broader Wall Street consensus, citing share gains and higher average selling prices heading into next year’s product cycle, according to TheStreet.

What Berkshire’s continued bet on Apple signals

Despite trimming roughly three quarters of its original Apple stake since the end of 2023 to manage concentration risk, Berkshire has not walked away from the position. Apple still accounts for about 22% of Berkshire’s stock portfolio, making it comfortably the conglomerate’s largest holding even after the selling, The Motley Fool reported.

The Motley Fool has noted that even after years of selling, Berkshire’s roughly 228 million remaining Apple shares are worth around $60 billion. A position so large that it remains larger than Berkshire’s next biggest holding by a wide margin.

Buffett repeatedly praised Apple as an exceptional business, even as Berkshire manages the size of the stake under new CEO Greg Abel.

Apple has taken deliberate steps to widen its ecosystem to price-sensitive buyers.

Cristina/Getty Images

What this means for Apple investors

Apple at 0.4% will never win a yield comparison. But that is not the point.

The point is that the dividend has been growing, the buyback is aggressive, and the business keeps finding new ways to pull customers in. Someone chasing 4% yield from a stagnant payout is playing a different game entirely.

Berkshire’s own decision to keep Apple as its largest publicly traded stock, even after years of trimming, suggests it still views the combination of ecosystem strength and capital return as durable.

For dividend investors willing to accept a lower starting yield in exchange for growth, Apple’s shrinking share count and rising payouts give the stock room to compound in a way that traditional high-yield names cannot.

The risk, as with any premium-priced growth stock, is that Apple’s valuation already reflects much of that optimism. But for investors comfortable holding a company Buffett himself refuses to sell, Apple’s dividend story looks far more compelling than its headline yield suggests.

More on Apple & its stock: 

  • Does Apple pay dividends? A history of rewarding shareholders
  • Apple’s stock split history: Everything you need to know
  • John Ternus’s net worth as Apple’s next CEO

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