Updated 15 September 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 6 basis points to 5.025% as of 1:10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, a level CNBC described as the highest since 2007. Trading Economics quoted it at 5.03%. The 2-year was at 4.68% and the 30-year at 5.384% (CNBC).
Verdict: Monday’s reversal from 5.014% lasted one session. The bond market is not waiting for Wednesday’s Fed decision to price the hike, and with CME FedWatch odds around 92%, the open question is what the Fed signals about the meetings after this one.
Key facts
- On Monday 14 September the 10-year touched an intraday high of 5.014% before easing to 4.947% (CNBC). Seoul Economic Daily, citing the move, said it was the first intraday break above 5% since October 2023.
- On Tuesday 15 September the yield climbed to 5.025% as of 1:10 a.m. ET (CNBC). Trading Economics put it at 5.03% and described it as the highest level since July 2007.
- The 30-year yield was up more than 5 basis points at 5.384% and the 2-year up about 4 basis points at 4.68% on Tuesday (CNBC).
- CME FedWatch priced a 25 basis point hike at the 15-16 September meeting at 92.3%, up from 87.3% a day earlier, as cited by CNBC and Seoul Economic Daily. FXStreet cited 86% at 14:33 GMT on Monday, so the figure depends on when it is read.
- A 25 basis point increase would take the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Trading Economics notes it would be the Fed’s first hike since July 2023.
- The FOMC decision and updated economic projections are due Wednesday 16 September at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- The US dollar index was at 99.67, up 0.28%, on Tuesday after touching 99.64, which Trading Economics described as its highest in about two weeks. EUR/USD traded around 1.1525 on Monday, near its lowest since 13 August (FXStreet).
From 4.95% to 5.025% since 10 September
FinanceFeeds tracked the approach on 10 September, when the Treasury bought back $5.2 billion of long bonds and the 10-year still hit 4.95%, as covered in our buyback report. The next day’s August CPI release removed most of the remaining doubt about a September hike: core CPI rose 0.3% on the month against a 0.2% consensus, and headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% over twelve months (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11 September).
Monday was the first attempt at the level. The yield reached 5.014% during the US session, then gave the move back as buyers came in, easing to 4.947% later in the session on CNBC’s figures. The retreat lasted one night: by early Tuesday, before the US open, the 10-year was back above 5% and through Monday’s high.
What coverage says is driving it
FinanceFeeds is reporting the reasons given by the outlets and data providers below rather than assigning a single cause.
- Energy prices. Trading Economics tied the move to a global bond selloff “amid surging energy prices”. Brent was quoted near $107 on Tuesday, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still shut; see today’s Brent crude report.
- Corporate bond supply. Trading Economics said surging debt issuance from AI companies has limited how much capital primary dealers and other institutions can allocate to Treasuries. Seoul Economic Daily also cited large-scale AI-related corporate issuance.
- Fiscal and inflation risk. Both Trading Economics and Seoul Economic Daily pointed to the size of the federal deficit and to inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target.
- The Fed itself. With a hike close to fully priced, rate expectations beyond September are now doing more of the work. ING’s Padhraic Garvey, quoted by FXStreet before Tuesday’s move, said the 10-year was “looking for an excuse” to mark 5%.
Three paths for the 10-year through Wednesday
These are not forecasts. Each row ties a yield range to a named reference level and the Fed outcome that would most plausibly produce it. The spot reference is 5.025% (CNBC, 1:10 a.m. ET, 15 September).
| Path | 10-year yield | Named anchor and condition |
|---|---|---|
| Yields lower | 4.90%-4.95% | Monday’s reversal to 4.947% (CNBC) and the 4.9% level cited in ING’s note. Condition: the hike is delivered as priced and the projections do not add further hikes, so the move is treated as one and done. |
| Yields hold | 5.00%-5.03% | The range between Monday’s 5.014% intraday high and Tuesday’s 5.025%. Condition: a hike at about the 92% FedWatch probability with guidance that leaves the next meeting open. |
| Yields higher | Above 5.025% | New highs beyond Tuesday’s level, which CNBC and Trading Economics already describe as the highest since 2007. Condition: projections signal more tightening, or oil and corporate supply keep pressing on the long end. |
Scotiabank strategists, quoted by FXStreet, noted that swaps pricing showing a 70% or higher chance of a Fed move has in recent years been “a near perfect indicator” of the move happening, while cautioning that how the Fed delivers it matters for the currency reaction. The same logic applies to the bond market: the hike is largely in the price, the message is not.
What it means for traders
FX. The dollar’s gains have tracked the yield. The dollar index was at 99.67 on Tuesday (Trading Economics) and EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1525 on Monday (FXStreet). A hawkish set of projections would tend to extend that; a dovish hike could reverse it quickly, as Monday’s intraday yield reversal showed.
Rate-sensitive assets. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. For how the Fed decision is being priced in crypto, see our Bitcoin FOMC preview, and for how prediction markets and futures compared on the hike, our 12 September Polymarket vs FedWatch piece.
Borrowers. US mortgage rates and many corporate borrowing costs are priced off the 10-year rather than the fed funds rate, so a sustained move above 5% feeds through to household and business credit whether or not the Fed moves again after Wednesday.
Quick take
The 10-year back above 5% before the Fed has even met tells you the hike itself is not the event. With FedWatch near 92%, Wednesday’s decision is close to a formality; the projections and Chair’s guidance on what comes next are what will decide whether 5.025% becomes a ceiling or a floor.
FAQ
What is the 10-year Treasury yield today?
The 10-year yield was 5.025% as of 1:10 a.m. ET on 15 September 2026, up more than 6 basis points, according to CNBC. Trading Economics quoted it at 5.03%. Yields move throughout the session, so treat any single quote as a snapshot.
When did the 10-year last trade above 5%?
Before this week, the last intraday break above 5% was in October 2023, according to Seoul Economic Daily. CNBC and Trading Economics describe Tuesday’s 5.025% as the highest level since 2007.
Why are Treasury yields rising?
Coverage cites a combination of factors: expectations of a Fed rate hike after a hotter-than-expected August core CPI reading, higher energy prices, heavy corporate bond issuance tied to AI spending, and concern about the size of the federal deficit.
Will the Fed raise rates on 16 September?
Futures markets think it very likely. CME FedWatch priced a 25 basis point hike at about 92% as cited by CNBC, which would move the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The decision is due at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday 16 September.
How does the 10-year yield affect mortgage rates?
US fixed mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the fed funds rate, so a rise in the 10-year usually pushes mortgage rates higher over time.
What is the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yield?
The 2-year is more sensitive to expected Fed policy over the next couple of years, while the 10-year also reflects longer-run inflation, growth and supply of government debt. On 15 September the 2-year was at 4.68% and the 10-year at 5.025% (CNBC).
Sources: CNBC (10-year, 2-year and 30-year yields, 14-15 September 2026; CME FedWatch odds); Trading Economics (US 10-year yield and dollar index summaries, 15 September 2026); Seoul Economic Daily (14 September intraday highs and FedWatch change, 15 September 2026); FXStreet (EUR/USD, ING and Scotiabank commentary, 14-15 September 2026); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (August 2026 CPI, released 11 September 2026).
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Bond yields, currencies and interest-rate expectations are volatile. Figures quoted are accurate as of the times stated and may have moved since. Do your own research before making any investment or borrowing decision.
