Updated 13 October 2026. Brent crude traded near $105.20 a barrel on Tuesday 13 October, down about 1.3 to 1.4 percent and ending a three-session rally (Trading Economics; AP). The fall came hours after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy claimed it had hit a third “violating” supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in two days. The claim is unverified and the vessel was not named. Verdict: the market is treating the Hormuz incidents as a rising cost of shipping, not yet as lost barrels, and Russian diesel plus Wednesday’s US CPI print are capping the upside. Reference levels: $97 below, $114 above.
Key facts
- Spot, 13 October: about $105.25 a barrel, down 1.3 percent (Trading Economics, 13 October); AP put Brent at $105.20, down 1.4 percent, with US crude down 1.5 percent at $92.34.
- Monday: Brent rose about 2 percent to $106.80 on Monday morning (Oilprice.com) and held above $106 after three straight gains (Trading Economics).
- The IRGC claim: the IRGC navy said on 12 October that a “third violating supertanker” was hit in the Strait of Hormuz that morning and caught fire, after it switched off its navigation system and ignored warnings (Press TV via ANI). The statement did not name the ship, its flag or how it was struck.
- Independent reports: UKMTO issued a delayed report that a vessel transiting the strait on 11 October was struck by an unknown projectile (Newsquawk, 12 October). India’s shipping minister Sarbananda Sonowal said the Marshall Islands-flagged MT Valthera was hit by a projectile in the strait on 11 October, with all 11 crew safe, and that two Indian seafarers were missing after a drone hit MT Petro Dolphin at Oman’s Sohar anchorage (ANI).
- The offset: Russia’s partial easing of diesel export limits on 10 October, which followed a US agreement, is weighing on prices (Trading Economics).
- Next data point: US September CPI on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS release calendar).
Why Brent fell on a third tanker claim
A claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to have struck three tankers in two days would, on its face, be a bullish shock. Brent instead slipped from above $106 to about $105. There are three reasons.
First, the claim itself is thin. The IRGC named no vessel, and the independent record does not line up neatly with “three supertankers”. UKMTO and India’s shipping ministry confirm projectile and drone strikes on tankers on 11 October, including MT Valthera inside the strait and MT Petro Dolphin off Sohar, but neither has confirmed a third supertanker hit on Monday morning. Newsquawk’s live feed carried the IRGC statement and the UKMTO report separately and did not link them.
Second, oil is still moving. Oilprice.com’s Irina Slav reported last week that ANZ’s Daniel Hynes noted Gulf producers appear willing to risk vessel damage because there is no alternative route for their oil. Attacks raise freight and insurance costs, but they have not yet closed the strait.
Third, the supply story elsewhere is getting looser. Trading Economics attributed Tuesday’s fall to investors weighing Russia’s partial easing of diesel export limits against the geopolitical risk, while US lawmakers questioned whether the Trump-Putin arrangement conflicts with a law restricting Russian energy imports. Our look at whether Russia’s diesel will lower pump prices covers the volumes.
The pattern in the Gulf
Monday’s claim is the latest in a run. Reuters, citing a US Navy-led information service, counted a dozen attacks on shipping between 28 September and 2 October, and Kpler data showed tanker traffic through Hormuz on 6 October at its lowest since late July (both via Oilprice.com, 8 October). Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran maintains “total control” over the corridor and that security cannot return while foreign military pressure and economic blockades continue (ANI).
The weekend also brought more Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s main airport, which we covered in Monday’s Brent analysis. Trading Economics reported that the White House is under pressure to back Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. A US strike on Yemen remains the single biggest upside trigger this week.
Brent price: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $97 | No confirmation of the IRGC claim, Russian diesel starts flowing, and a hot CPI print on 14 October lifts the dollar and rate-hike bets. | The 6 October low of $97.06, about 8 percent below Tuesday’s spot. |
| Base | $101-$109 | Strikes on shipping continue at the current pace, but flows through Hormuz continue and the US stays out of Yemen. | The past week’s range around $105; Trading Economics’ end-of-quarter model estimate of $108.60. |
| Bull | $114 | Independent confirmation of more tanker hits, owners start avoiding the strait, or the US joins strikes on the Houthis. | The EIA’s September Brent spot average of $114, when Gulf supply risk was at its peak. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s spot near $105.20. The bull case needs a change in physical flows, not another unverified claim. Trading Economics’ end-of-quarter figure of $108.60 is a statistical projection, not an analyst forecast.
What to watch this week
- UKMTO notices. Confirmation, or denial, of a third tanker hit on 12 October, and any vessel name. That decides whether the IRGC claim counts as a supply event.
- Wednesday 14 October, 8:30 a.m. ET. US September CPI. A hot print supports the dollar and Fed hike bets, which weighs on oil.
- A US decision on Yemen. Any move to join Saudi strikes is the clearest route to the bull case.
- Russian diesel cargoes and whether Congress challenges the arrangement.
- Tanker traffic data from Kpler and other trackers. A sustained drop in transits would turn the risk premium into a supply loss.
For the full week’s calendar and the Iran ceasefire backdrop, see our Brent week-ahead outlook.
Quick take: Brent near $105 is pricing the Hormuz attacks as a cost, not an outage. The IRGC’s third-tanker claim is unconfirmed and oil is still moving through the strait, while Russian diesel and Wednesday’s CPI pull the other way. That points to a $101-$109 range. The route to $114 runs through confirmed tanker losses or a US strike on Yemen; the route to $97 runs through a quiet strait and a hot CPI print.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent traded near $105.20 a barrel on Tuesday 13 October 2026, down about 1.3 to 1.4 percent, according to Trading Economics and AP. It held above $106 on Monday.
Did Iran hit a third tanker in the Strait of Hormuz?
The IRGC navy says it did, on the morning of 12 October, but it did not name the ship and the claim has not been independently confirmed. UKMTO and India’s shipping ministry have confirmed projectile and drone strikes on tankers on 11 October, including MT Valthera in the strait.
Why did oil prices fall despite the attacks?
Oil is still flowing through Hormuz, the latest claim is unverified, and Russia’s partial easing of diesel export limits points to more fuel supply. Traders are also cautious ahead of US inflation data on 14 October.
Could Brent fall below $100?
Yes, if the strait stays open, Russian diesel reaches the market and US CPI comes in hot. Our bear case is $97, near the 6 October low of $97.06.
What would push Brent to $114?
Confirmed tanker losses that make owners avoid the strait, a sustained fall in transits, or US military action against the Houthis. $114 was the EIA’s September average for Brent.
How does US CPI affect oil prices?
A hotter-than-expected inflation print tends to lift the dollar and raise the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes, both of which weigh on oil. September CPI is due on 14 October at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Sources: Trading Economics (Brent price and market commentary, 12-13 October 2026; end-of-quarter model estimate); AP (Brent and US crude prices, 13 October); Oilprice.com (Monday price, ANZ comment, Reuters attack count and Kpler traffic data, 8 and 12 October); Press TV via ANI (IRGC statement, Indian crew details, Iranian foreign ministry comments, 12 October); Newsquawk (UKMTO report, 12 October); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (September Brent average); US Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar (CPI date).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.
