Updated 19 October 2026. Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday 19 October, down about 1.7-1.9 percent on the day, after Friday’s settle at $109.86, its highest since May (ABC News, HDFC Sky, Reuters settlement). The trigger: President Trump’s Friday order waiving new Russia sanctions and tariffs, paired with a deal to bring Russian diesel to the US. Verdict: the waiver takes some heat out of the rally, but it does not touch the Strait of Hormuz, where flows remain well below normal. Reference levels: $103 below, $113 above.
Key facts
- Monday price: Brent fell 1.7 percent to $107.98 and WTI 0.7 percent to $100.69 by mid-afternoon in Sydney (ABC News markets blog). HDFC Sky reported Brent down 1.9 percent at $107.80 and WTI down 1 percent at $100.40. Trading Economics showed Brent near $107.3-107.5, down a little over 2 percent.
- Friday settle, 16 October: Brent closed at $109.86, up $3.94 or 3.7 percent, after briefly touching $110. It gained 4.9 percent on the week. WTI settled at $101.41, up 10.4 percent on the week (Reuters).
- The Russia waiver: on Friday Trump signed an executive order waiving the sanctions and tariffs in the Graham Act, which targets the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas and was due to take effect this week (NBC News, Benzinga). Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.
- The diesel deal: Trump said Russia would initially send more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to the US, with more in November and beyond. NBC News reported that diesel prices are up almost 70 percent since the Iran war began in February.
- Hormuz: Kpler data cited by HDFC Sky put Gulf crude flows at about 8.5 million barrels a day in the seven days to Friday, with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels that week. Trading Economics reported three tankers damaged in the strait over the weekend.
- Iran’s terms: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Tehran’s seven-point reopening proposal still stands. It requires an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports and to sanctions on Iranian oil (Reuters, via FinanceFeeds).
Why oil fell on Monday
The Graham Act sanctions were meant to cut Russian energy revenue by penalising the countries that buy it. Traders had been pricing a risk that those penalties would squeeze Russian supply further just as the Gulf is disrupted. Friday’s waiver removes that risk for now, and the diesel deal adds a new source of the fuel that has been tightest this year.
The move was partly profit-taking. Brent ran up 4.9 percent last week and touched $110, a level it had not reached since May, so some of Monday’s fall is traders locking in gains. We set out the levels in our Brent week-ahead outlook on Friday.
The waiver is not final. Trump told reporters that many people “don’t know what my decision is yet”, and Rubio framed the 60 days as a review. Republican and Democratic senators criticised the order, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said it weakens pressure on Moscow (NBC News). If the sanctions are reinstated, the supply risk returns.
Hormuz still sets the floor
A diesel deal does not replace Gulf crude. Kpler’s figure of about 8.5 million barrels a day through the region is well below prewar levels; CNBC, citing Kpler, put a similar weekly average nearly 40 percent below normal earlier this month. Trading Economics reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard still says vessels need its permission to pass.
Diplomacy has not moved. Iran says the strait will reopen only on its terms, and on Sunday Polymarket traders priced “no Hormuz agreement by 23 October” at about 96 percent, as we covered in Iran’s latest Hormuz demands. As long as that holds, dips in Brent are likely to meet buyers.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $103 | The Russia waiver holds, diesel cargoes start moving and a Hormuz de-escalation headline appears. Brent gives back all of last week’s gain. | Brent started last week near $104.70 (derived from Reuters’ $109.86 settle and 4.9 percent weekly gain). About 4.6 percent below Monday’s $108. |
| Base | $105-$111 | No change in Hormuz, no final word on Russia. Oil trades the weekly inventory data and shipping incidents. | Monday’s range around $108, Friday’s $110 high above. |
| Bull | $113 | New tanker attacks or a reversal of the Russia waiver. Brent clears Friday’s $110 high. | The $111-$113 resistance zone named by Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management (CMC Markets, 12 October), who said a sustained break above $113 could open a path toward $120. |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. The levels are reference points measured from the verified Monday quote, not price forecasts.
What to watch this week
- The waiver: any sign that Congress moves to override it, or that Trump reverses course, would put the Russia premium back into prices.
- Hormuz shipping: tanker incidents and the daily Kpler flow numbers. Iran has tied reopening to a US withdrawal from the region.
- US inventories: the EIA weekly report on Wednesday. US crude stocks fell by 8.56 million barrels in the week to 9 October (Trading Economics).
- The Fed: the 27-28 October decision. Oil near $110 feeds directly into the inflation numbers the Fed is watching. See our gold outlook for the week.
- Diesel: see our earlier coverage of the IEA diesel release for how product shortages have driven this year’s rally.
Quick take: Brent fell to about $108 on Monday after Trump waived new Russia sanctions and agreed a diesel deal with Moscow. That removes one supply risk, but Hormuz flows are still far below normal and Iran’s terms for reopening have not changed. Expect $105-$111. A lasting waiver plus calmer Gulf headlines opens $103. Fresh tanker attacks or a reversal open $113.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent traded near $108 a barrel on Monday 19 October 2026, down about 1.7-1.9 percent, after settling at $109.86 on Friday (ABC News, HDFC Sky, Reuters).
Why is oil down today?
Trump signed an order on Friday waiving new sanctions and tariffs on Russia under the Graham Act, and announced a deal for Russian diesel exports to the US. That eased fears of a further supply squeeze. Profit-taking after a 4.9 percent weekly gain added to the fall.
What is the Graham Act?
It is a sanctions law signed last month that targets the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and allows tariffs on their goods. Its measures were due to take effect this week before the waiver (NBC News, Benzinga).
How long does the Russia sanctions waiver last?
The order did not set an end date. Rubio said the administration will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact, and Trump has said no final decision has been made.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Only partly. Kpler data put Gulf crude flows at about 8.5 million barrels a day last week, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says vessels need its authorisation to pass (HDFC Sky, Trading Economics).
Can Brent go back above $110?
It touched $110 on Friday. Analyst Michael Kramer sees resistance at $111-$113, and a sustained move above $113 could open $120 (CMC Markets, 12 October). That would likely need new disruption in the Gulf or a reversal of the Russia waiver.
Sources: ABC News markets blog (Brent, WTI intraday, 19 October 2026); HDFC Sky (Brent, WTI, Kpler flow data, 19 October); Trading Economics (Brent quote, inventories, Hormuz developments); Reuters (Friday settlement, Araghchi remarks); NBC News and Benzinga (executive order, diesel deal, reactions); CMC Markets, Michael J. Kramer (technical levels, 12 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Oil prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
