Updated 22 October 2026. Tesla (TSLA) closed at $386.47 on Wednesday 21 October, up 3.41 percent, then fell to $373.65 in after-hours trading at 19:59 ET, down 3.32 percent, after Q3 results that beat on earnings and cash flow but showed operating income down 56 percent (StockAnalysis, Electrek). Non-GAAP EPS was $0.48 against $0.45 expected, revenue $28.05 billion was flat, auto gross margin ex-credits rose to 18.1 percent and free cash flow swung to $1.53 billion from minus $1.09 billion. On the call Musk said the Austin Cybercab fleet is up tenfold in a month, Dallas launches next month, Optimus deliveries to outside companies come around the end of 2027, and the CFO cut 2026 capex guidance to about $20 billion (Investing.com transcript). Verdict: the quarter fixed margins and cash; the stock gave back Wednesday’s gain because the timelines moved out. Reference levels: $347 below, $400 above.
Key facts
- Price: close $386.47, up $12.76, range $380.51-$388.84; after hours $373.65, down $12.82 or 3.32 percent, at 19:59 ET (StockAnalysis). Investing.com’s earlier snapshot had $377.88, down 2.22 percent. Market cap $1.53 trillion. 52-week range $297.38-$498.83.
- Headline numbers: revenue $28.05 billion, flat on $28.1 billion a year ago, versus $28.06 billion consensus; non-GAAP EPS $0.48 versus $0.45 expected and $0.50 a year ago; GAAP EPS $0.22, GAAP net income $787 million, down 43 percent (Electrek, 21 October).
- Margins: total gross margin 19.6 percent (Q2 16.8 percent); auto gross margin ex-credits 18.1 percent (Q2 16.3 percent, year ago 15.4 percent); operating income $718 million, down 56 percent, operating margin 2.6 percent (year ago 5.8 percent). Operating expenses up 39 percent to $4.78 billion, R&D up 69 percent to $2.76 billion, stock-based compensation $1.17 billion (Electrek).
- Cash: free cash flow $1.53 billion (Q2 minus $1.09 billion, year ago $3.99 billion); capex $4.73 billion in the quarter, $13.01 billion year to date; cash and investments $45.4 billion. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said 2026 capex guidance is now about $20 billion, funded mainly from operating cash flow, against the “more than $25 billion” in the Q2 letter; Tesla has up to $30 billion of borrowing capacity it does not plan to draw this year (Investing.com, Electrek).
- Segments: energy revenue $2.88 billion, down 16 percent on tariff-related refunds, but energy gross margin 33 percent (Q2 20 percent); services $4.61 billion, up 33 percent, record $734 million gross profit; regulatory credits $113 million versus $417 million a year ago. Deliveries 486,532, inventory down to 11 days from 15. Active FSD subscriptions 1.74 million, up 67 percent. Non-operating items: a $288 million unrealised gain on bitcoin and a $142 million unrealised loss on the SpaceX stake (Electrek).
- Call timelines: Cybercab fleet in Austin up “by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago” (Musk); Dallas next month and six cities operating with 24/7 service targeted by year-end (Ashok Elluswamy); Cybercab customer availability end of 2026 (Lars Moravy); first customer vehicles joining the Robotaxi fleet unsupervised around Q2 2027; Robotaxi revenue “noticeable” in Q2 2027 and significant by Q3 or Q4; Optimus at 20,000 a week “probably at least a year, maybe a little longer,” external deliveries around end-2027; Megapacks “almost sold out” for 2027; the $0.30 per paid mile target not yet reached (Investing.com transcript).
- SpaceX: head of IR Travis Axelrod said the company would not take merger questions; Musk said he had “said everything that should be said yesterday, tap dancing through a minefield there.”
- Analysts after the print: RBC kept Buy with a $480 target; JPMorgan kept Hold at $415 (via KuCoin). Before it, Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco was at Hold, $400, and Jefferies’ Philippe Houchois at Hold, $400 (TipRanks, Benzinga). StockAnalysis’ 44-analyst average is $397.83.
The quarter was better than feared, the calendar was not
Going in, as we set out on Wednesday’s page, the three questions were whether auto margin ex-credits stabilised above 16.3 percent, whether free cash flow turned positive, and whether the call gave a Cybercab date. The first two were answered yes, by more than expected: 18.1 percent and $1.53 billion, with inventory down to 11 days and regulatory credits now a $113 million footnote rather than a crutch. Energy’s 33 percent gross margin on lower revenue is the quiet surprise.
What the after-hours tape sold was the third answer. Unsupervised customer vehicles are now a Q2 2027 item, Robotaxi revenue is a late-2027 item, Optimus volume is a 2028 item, and Musk’s own capex language, “more meaningful next year” and “tens of billions in 2028,” says the spending runs ahead of all of it. Operating income fell 56 percent because R&D grew 69 percent; that is the trade shareholders are being asked to fund. SpaceX’s own print, up 11 percent on the day and covered in our SpaceX page, was the better stock on Wednesday, and the merger question was closed on the call.
Why the stock round-tripped
Wednesday’s 3.4 percent gain to $386.47 was the merger bid carrying into results. The after-hours $373.65 is within a dollar of Tuesday’s $373.71 close, so the net move on the quarter is roughly zero and inside the 6-7.5 percent implied move the options market had priced. If the after-hours move holds into Thursday it will be the fourth straight report followed by a decline (TipRanks counted three), but the smallest of the four and the first with margins and cash moving the right way. The read into Thursday’s open is set by the index, where a heavy slate of after-hours earnings reactions is in play, as covered in our Nasdaq 100 piece.
Tesla after Q3: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | TSLA | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $347 | The after-hours selling extends through the open as the Q2 2027 and end-2027 timelines are repriced, and the Nasdaq 100 opens lower on the other after-hours earnings reactions. | About 7 percent below the $373.65 after-hours price, the downside of the implied move measured from Tuesday’s close; still well above the $297.38 52-week low. |
| Base | $360-$390 | The margin and cash beat holds the stock near Tuesday’s level while the timelines are digested. | Tuesday’s $363.64 low to Wednesday’s $388.84 high, straddling the $373.65 after-hours print (StockAnalysis). |
| Bull | $400 | Buyers treat 18.1 percent margin, $1.53 billion of free cash flow and a roughly $5 billion capex cut as the turn, and the Dallas launch lands next month on schedule. | Morgan Stanley’s and Jefferies’ $400 targets and the $397.83 44-analyst average; about 7 percent above the after-hours price. |
The bear case sits below the after-hours price. These are reference levels measured from the verified StockAnalysis quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Thursday
- Premarket from 04:00 ET: whether $373 holds, which would make the quarter a net nothing for the stock.
- Analyst notes: RBC $480 and JPMorgan $415 are in; the Morgan Stanley and Jefferies $400 targets are the ones to watch for changes.
- Dallas: a dated November launch is the first checkpoint on the new robotaxi calendar.
- Capex: $13.01 billion spent through nine months against a roughly $20 billion full-year guide implies about $7 billion in Q4.
Quick take: Tesla beat with $0.48 EPS, 18.1 percent auto margin and $1.53 billion of free cash flow, cut 2026 capex to about $20 billion, and fell 3.3 percent after hours to $373.65 because unsupervised FSD, Robotaxi revenue and Optimus volume all moved into 2027-2028. Expect $360-$390. A timeline repricing through the open opens $347. A margin-turn read opens $400.
FAQ
What is the Tesla stock price today?
TSLA closed at $386.47 on Wednesday 21 October 2026, up 3.41 percent, and traded at $373.65 after hours at 19:59 ET, down 3.32 percent (StockAnalysis).
Did Tesla beat earnings in Q3 2026?
Yes. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.48 against $0.45 expected, revenue $28.05 billion was in line, and free cash flow was $1.53 billion. GAAP net income fell 43 percent to $787 million and operating income fell 56 percent (Electrek).
Why did Tesla stock fall after earnings?
The call pushed timelines out: unsupervised customer vehicles around Q2 2027, Robotaxi revenue noticeable in Q2 2027, Optimus volume a year or more away and external deliveries around end-2027, with capex rising into 2028 (Investing.com transcript).
What is Tesla’s capex guidance?
CFO Vaibhav Taneja said 2026 capex is now expected at about $20 billion, down from the “more than $25 billion” in the Q2 letter, funded mainly from operating cash flow. Tesla has up to $30 billion of borrowing capacity it does not plan to use this year.
What did Tesla say about the SpaceX merger?
Nothing new. Investor relations said the company would not take merger questions, and Musk said he had said everything that should be said on Tuesday, when he confirmed both boards formed special committees.
What are analysts’ price targets for Tesla?
RBC Buy $480 and JPMorgan Hold $415 after the print; Morgan Stanley Hold $400 and Jefferies Hold $400 before it; 44-analyst average $397.83 (KuCoin, TipRanks, Benzinga, StockAnalysis).
Sources: StockAnalysis (close, after-hours, range, market cap, 52-week range, analyst average, 21 October 2026); Electrek, Fred Lambert (Q3 2026 financial results, segments, deliveries, capex, 21 October); Investing.com earnings call transcript (after-hours snapshot, Musk, Elluswamy, Moravy and Taneja remarks, analyst questions, 21 October); KuCoin (RBC and JPMorgan post-print targets, Cybercab and Optimus timelines); TipRanks and Benzinga (Morgan Stanley and Jefferies targets, pre-earnings).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
