Updated 26 October 2026. Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $4,009.87 an ounce by 03:42 GMT on Monday, back above $4,000 after Friday’s first close below that line since mid-July; December futures gained 0.4 percent to $4,023.50 (Reuters, via Business Recorder). Kitco quoted $4,005.20 at 2:18 am ET. Verdict: Monday’s bounce is an oil trade, not a haven trade. Brent slipped about 2 percent from Friday’s six-month-high settlement, and that eased the inflation fear that drove gold’s worst week since June. The Fed decides on Wednesday 28 October and September PCE lands on Thursday 29 October; until then gold is a function of oil and rate expectations. Reference levels: $3,890 below, $4,075 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $4,009.87 at 03:42 GMT on Monday 26 October, up 0.4 percent, after hitting its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session; December US gold futures $4,023.50, up 0.4 percent (Reuters, via Business Recorder). Earlier in the Asian session gold traded near $3,995 (FXStreet), and FXEmpire’s ticker showed $4,006.57 at 06:40 UTC.
- Last week: gold fell 4 percent in the week to Friday 23 October, its steepest weekly decline since June, and closed near $3,996 (Reuters, Kitco).
- Other metals: spot silver rose 0.6 percent to $54.19, platinum steadied at $1,551.31 and palladium gained 0.6 percent to $1,050.50 on Monday morning (Reuters, via Business Recorder).
- Why it is up: “The jump that we’ve seen is mostly symptomatic of the kind of relief provided by a lower oil price,” said market analyst Kyle Rodda, adding that gold “will continue to trade as a function of interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks” (Reuters). Brent was down about 1.8-2.1 percent near $114.30-$114.60 in Asian trade (OilPrice.com via Gulf News; HDFC Sky).
- Fed odds: traders expect a hold at the 27-28 October meeting; CME FedWatch puts the probability of a December hike at about 75 percent (Reuters, Monday). Some trackers showed 79 percent over the weekend, and Yardeni Research had 84 percent on 25 October, so the December figure has eased slightly as oil came off.
- The data: September PCE inflation and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP are due on Thursday 29 October. The Cleveland Fed nowcast has core PCE at 3.1 percent year on year and headline at 3.6 percent (Yardeni Research). US business activity slowed modestly in October, but strong demand let companies raise prices, a sign inflation could stay high (Reuters).
- Diplomacy and war: Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday seeking to ease regional tensions (Reuters). Over the weekend the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted further Houthi missiles and drones aimed at Riyadh, Khamis Mushait and the south; the Houthis’ claimed hits on Aramco’s Yanbu facility and the Rabigh refinery have not been confirmed by Saudi Arabia (Gulf News, Al Jazeera).
- Levels: FXEmpire’s Arslan Ali has resistance at $4,032, then $4,075, and support in the $3,946-$3,963 zone, then $3,890, with daily RSI near 35; “I stay bearish while gold is below $4,075,” he wrote on Monday. Kitco’s Friday technical read had the same $4,075 resistance and $3,890 downside target.
An oil-relief bounce, not a change of story
Gold’s Monday move is the mirror image of last week’s. Brent’s 6 percent weekly gain to a $116.72 settlement on Friday pushed up inflation expectations, kept the 10-year yield near 5 percent and made a December hike the consensus; gold lost 4 percent. On Monday Brent gave back about $2 in Asia, and gold recovered roughly a quarter of Friday’s damage. Rodda’s line is the right frame: the bounce is relief from a lower oil price, which means it is only as durable as the oil price. Our Brent page tracks the weekend’s Houthi claims; any Saudi confirmation of damage at Yanbu or Rabigh would reverse both moves at once.
The weekend did add one thing that matters for gold beyond oil: diplomacy. Qatari mediators in Tehran are the first visible de-escalation channel since the attacks on Saudi Arabia began, and a credible ceasefire track would take the oil premium out faster than any Fed statement. That is the bull path. The bear path runs through Thursday: if September PCE prints above the Cleveland Fed’s 3.1 percent core nowcast, December goes from likely to locked, and the margin-call selling that hit silver, platinum and palladium last week can return. Sunday’s page set out the week’s calendar; Monday’s tape says the market is waiting for it.
What Wednesday and Thursday decide
A hold on Wednesday is priced. The trade is in Chair Kevin Warsh’s language on December. A statement that keeps December open would let the 75 percent hike odds drift lower and give gold a run at $4,032 and $4,075. A statement that signals December, combined with a hot PCE number on Thursday morning, puts the $3,946-$3,963 support zone under test and opens $3,890. Big-tech earnings sit in the same window, with Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday (Yardeni Research): a second AI-led equity selloff would mean more forced metals selling, whatever the Fed says.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,890 | Brent recovers above $116, Warsh signals December and Thursday’s PCE prints above the 3.1 percent core nowcast; equities extend last week’s selloff. | The downside target shared by FXEmpire and Kitco, about 3 percent below Monday’s $4,009.87 and under the $3,946-$3,963 support zone. |
| Base | $3,946-$4,032 | Gold holds the oil-relief bounce but stalls below first resistance into Wednesday; the market trades the Fed and PCE rather than the Gulf. | FXEmpire’s support zone and first resistance. |
| Bull | $4,075 | Oil keeps falling on the Qatari mediation track, the December language stays open and PCE lands at or below the nowcast. | FXEmpire’s and Kitco’s key resistance, about 1.6 percent above Monday’s price; the line FXEmpire says flips its bearish bias. |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Oil, all week: Brent near $114.60 on Monday morning. Saudi confirmation of damage at Yanbu or Rabigh lifts oil and pressures gold; progress from the Qatari mediators does the reverse.
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm EDT: the FOMC statement and Warsh’s press conference. The December wording is the trade.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP, against the 3.1 percent core and 3.6 percent headline nowcast.
- Silver: $54.19 on Monday. FXEmpire’s resistance is $54.53, then $55.77; support $53.46, then $52.41. A close above $54.53 would suggest last week’s liquidation is over.
- Equities: Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday.
Quick take: gold is back at about $4,010 on Monday because Brent slipped 2 percent, not because the Gulf calmed. December hike odds near 75 percent still cap it. Expect $3,946-$4,032 into Wednesday’s Fed. A hot PCE on Thursday with oil back above $116 opens $3,890; a soft print and falling oil open $4,075.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,009.87 an ounce at 03:42 GMT on Monday 26 October 2026, up 0.4 percent; December futures were $4,023.50 (Reuters). Kitco quoted $4,005.20 at 2:18 am ET.
Why is gold up on Monday?
Oil fell. Brent dropped about 2 percent in Asian trade after a 6 percent gain last week, easing the inflation fears that had pushed gold to a three-month low. Analyst Kyle Rodda called the move “mostly symptomatic of the kind of relief provided by a lower oil price” (Reuters).
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
Markets expect a hold this week. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike at about 75 percent (Reuters, 26 October).
What is the silver price today?
Spot silver rose 0.6 percent to $54.19 on Monday morning, after Friday’s close near $53.97, its lowest since November 2025 (Reuters).
What are the key gold levels this week?
Resistance at $4,032 and $4,075; support at $3,946-$3,963 and then $3,890 (FXEmpire, Kitco).
When is the PCE inflation report?
September PCE and the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP are due at 8:30 am EDT on Thursday 29 October. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is 3.1 percent core and 3.6 percent headline (Yardeni Research).
Sources: Reuters (spot and futures prices, silver, platinum and palladium, Kyle Rodda quotes, FedWatch 75 percent, Qatari mediators, October business activity, 26 October 2026, via Business Recorder); Kitco (live quote 2:18 am ET, 26 October; technical levels, 23 October); FXStreet via Mitrade (early Asian quote, 26 October); FXEmpire (Arslan Ali, levels and RSI, 26 October 06:30 GMT); OilPrice.com via Gulf News and HDFC Sky (Brent, 26 October); Gulf News and Al Jazeera (weekend Houthi claims and interceptions, 24-25 October); Yardeni Research, Economic Week Ahead (Cleveland Fed nowcast, FedWatch, earnings calendar, 25 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
