Updated 10 November 2026, 07:10 GMT, before the US market open. Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed Monday at $58.86, up 10.91 percent ahead of its results, then fell to $54.99 after hours, down 6.57 percent at 7:59 p.m. ET (StockAnalysis). Verdict: revenue and backlog beat, but the loss was wider than forecast and the company gave no month for Neutron’s first launch. Reference levels: $64 above, $46 below.
Key facts
- Q3 revenue: $267.8 million, up 73 percent, above the $250 million to $265 million guide and a $257.18 million consensus (MarketBeat; Stocktwits).
- Loss per share: $0.12 against an expected $0.07 (Stocktwits; 24/7 Wall St.).
- Backlog: $3.57 billion, up 52 percent from the previous quarter. About $1.17 billion is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months (Stocktwits).
- Q4 guide: revenue of $270 million to $290 million against a $265.42 million consensus, and GAAP gross margin of 34 to 36 percent (MarketBeat; Stocktwits).
- Neutron: first launch no earlier than 2027, with no month or quarter given (Stocktwits).
- Cash flow: operating cash flow of $7.2 million, against a use of $84.1 million in Q2 (MarketBeat).
- Liquidity: about $4.7 billion in cash, restricted cash and marketable securities (MarketBeat).
- 52-week range: $37.57 to $151.00 (Yahoo Finance).
What the numbers showed
Rocket Lab delivered its sixth straight record quarter for revenue. Space Systems brought in $214.8 million and Launch Services $53.1 million, up 19 percent from the previous quarter, according to MarketBeat’s call summary. GAAP gross margin of 33.6 percent beat the 29 to 31 percent guide but fell from the prior quarter, partly because of the first full quarter of the Mynaric acquisition and the absence of tariff refunds received in Q2.
The company’s $7.2 million of operating cash flow marked a sharp swing from Q2. The chief financial officer linked it to larger satellite-program milestone payments and described those as uneven, and non-GAAP free cash flow was still negative at $23.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 is guided to a loss of $14 million to $20 million.
Neutron: the delay was known, the date still is not
The 2027 timing is not new. Rocket Lab’s shares fell in October after the company moved Neutron’s first launch into next year, as we reported at the time. What investors wanted on Monday was a tighter date, and they did not get one.
The cause is a defect found in the first-stage tank’s forward dome, and a replacement has been built but still has to pass qualification tests, according to Stocktwits and MarketBeat. Asked about timing, chief executive Peter Beck declined to name a month or quarter, saying he did not want to be “continually wrong”. Before the results, Citizens and Cantor Fitzgerald were both modelling a first launch around the second quarter of 2027, according to TipRanks.
Customers are still paying for it
Rocket Lab signed eight Neutron missions worth about $515 million in the quarter, which works out to about $64 million per mission by simple division. Its base price has risen to $70 million from $55 million. The first 16 launches are now contracted and the next open slots are in the 2030s, Stocktwits reported, with named customers including ICEYE, Muon Space and Starcloud.
Electron remains the steady earner. The company signed 54 launch contracts in the quarter, worth about $1 billion for Electron and HASTE combined, and has flown 99 Electron missions, with the 100th expected within about a week. The pending acquisition of Iridium Communications is fully financed, according to Stocktwits, though regulatory approvals are still outstanding. The Iridium deal and the Neutron schedule are the two items most likely to change the investment case from here.
What analysts are saying
StockAnalysis lists an average target of $100.65 from 22 analysts, in a range of $64 to $150, but that data was last updated on 6 November, before the results. Morgan Stanley reiterated Buy with a $105 target on 6 November. Cantor Fitzgerald has $122, and Citizens cut its target to $90 from $130 on 4 November. Goldman Sachs holds a Hold rating with a $67 target from mid-October. We found no published target changes made after Monday’s report. Our Rocket Lab forecast page has a longer-range view.
Rocket Lab stock: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | RKLB | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $46 | The after-hours fall extends and growth stocks weaken on today’s CPI. | The $45.99 close of 5 November; about 16.3 percent below the after-hours price. |
| Base | $53-$60 | The stock settles into Monday’s range while investors weigh the backlog against the Neutron uncertainty. | Monday’s $53.01 low and $59.69 high. |
| Bull | $64 | Buyers focus on backlog and pricing, and the stock recovers Monday’s pre-results gain and more. | The lowest target in the StockAnalysis range; about 16.4 percent above the after-hours price. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from StockAnalysis’s after-hours quote, not forecasts. After-hours trading is thin and the regular session may open at a different price.
What to watch this week
- Today, 13:30 GMT: US October CPI.
- Today, 14:30 GMT: the regular open, the first full-volume reaction to the results.
- $59.69: Monday’s high, set before the report.
- $45.99: the 5 November close, last week’s lowest close.
- Analyst notes: target changes following the report, which were not yet available at the time of writing.
Quick take: Rocket Lab beat on revenue and lifted backlog to $3.57 billion, but a wider loss and no firm Neutron date took the stock to $54.99 after hours, after a 10.91 percent gain on Monday. Below that, $46 is the next reference level. A recovery on backlog and pricing would point to $64.
FAQ
What is Rocket Lab’s stock price today?
Rocket Lab closed at $58.86 on Monday 9 November and traded at $54.99 after hours at 7:59 p.m. ET (StockAnalysis). The regular session opens at 14:30 GMT.
Why did Rocket Lab stock fall after earnings?
The loss of $0.12 a share was wider than the $0.07 expected, and management gave no month for Neutron’s first launch. The stock had also risen 10.91 percent on Monday before the report.
What was Rocket Lab’s Q3 revenue?
Revenue was $267.8 million, up 73 percent from a year earlier and above the company’s $250 million to $265 million guide.
When will Neutron launch?
Rocket Lab says the first launch will come no earlier than 2027. Chief executive Peter Beck declined to name a month or quarter while tank testing continues.
How big is Rocket Lab’s backlog?
Backlog reached $3.57 billion, up 52 percent from the previous quarter. Stocktwits reported that about $1.17 billion is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months.
What is the Rocket Lab stock price target?
StockAnalysis lists an average target of $100.65 from 22 analysts, in a range of $64 to $150, as of 6 November and before the results. Those targets are not guarantees.
Sources: Rocket Lab third-quarter results and earnings call, 9 November, via MarketBeat and Stocktwits on Yahoo Finance; 24/7 Wall St., 9 November (estimates); StockAnalysis, 6-9 November (close, after-hours price, analyst targets); Yahoo Finance daily data (52-week range, 5-9 November prices); TipRanks (Neutron timing estimates, published before the results); Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
