By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter
LOCAL RICE PRODUCTION is expected to rebound in 2025, an analyst said, citing low base effects.
“It will likely be an increase since we are starting with a low base in 2024, where palay production had shrunk a million metric tons (MT), by our calculation,” Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said in a Viber message.
Earlier, the Department of Agriculture said palay or unmilled rice production would likely fall to 19.3 million MT in 2024.
The agriculture sector was negatively impacted by dry spells and droughts caused by El Niño in the first half, and heavy rains and typhoons in the latter part of 2024.
If realized, rice output would fall by 3.63% from 20.06 million MT in actual production in 2023. This would also be the lowest level of rice production since the 19.29 million MT posted in 2020.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that milled rice production for 2025 would decline by 3% due to the impact of the El Niño and La Niña events.
The USDA said that milled rice production would likely fall to 11.95 million MT in 2025 from the 12.32 million MT forecast for 2024.
Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies said in a Viber message that rice output will likely improve in 2025 due to an increase in productivity.
“There is no way to go but up because we hit rock bottom (in 2024), unless natural calamities again affect our rice-growing areas,” Mr. Adriano added.
Before it ended in June 2024, El Niño caused drought and dry conditions that affected agricultural production.
Farm damage caused by El Niño stood at P15.3 billion, according to the DA’s final estimate. Damage to rice crops amounted to P5.93 billion or 38.8% of the total. Lost volume stood at 330,717 MT, across 109,481 hectares of farmland.
In the fourth quarter, several storms hit the country. The DA estimated that agricultural damage due to typhoons Kristine and Leon reached P9.81 billion, covering 183,877 hectares of land and production loss of 380,704 MT.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said rice production in 2025 “should be better,” amid the increase rainfall during La Niña.
“As La Niña is expected to last up to early first quarter of 2025, provided there would be no large storm or flood damage. Unlike the El Niño from the latter part of 2023 to June 2024 that reduced rainfall and rice production, as well as the series of strong storms since July 2024,” he said in a Viber message.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that La Niña-like conditions are currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific.
“La Niña conditions for December to February 2024-25 is favored, with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions starting the March-April-May,” PAGASA said in its latest monitoring as of Dec 18.
Weather conditions that are neither El Niño nor La Niña are considered to be El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.
Meanwhile, Mr. Briones said rice prices in 2025 would be “lower than the average in 2024.”
The government had slashed tariffs on imported rice to 15% from 35% until 2028 to lower prices of rice.
“Rice prices will likely go down given the release of rice imports made last year, but it will be gradually,” Mr. Adriano added.
He said that regular milled rice would be unlikely to fall between P38 and P40 per kilogram due to higher input costs.
In an earlier report, Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI said international rice prices are expected to decline in 2025 as India eased restrictions on exports of white rice.
Last September, India’s Directorate of Foreign Trade lifted the export ban on non-basmati white rice, citing ample inventory levels.
The Philippines remains the world’s top importer of rice, according to the USDA. The Philippines is projected to import 5.3 million MT of rice in 2025.
