Updated 8 October 2026. Samsung Electronics guided third-quarter 2026 operating profit to about 107.4 trillion won on sales of about 195 trillion won – the first quarter in the company’s history above 100 trillion won of operating profit, and roughly $80 billion at current exchange rates (CNBC). The figure came in above the LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won (TradingKey). The shares did not rally: Samsung (KRX: 005930) traded at 268,000 won at 10:30 a.m. Seoul time, down 0.2 percent (Aju Press/Yonhap), after closing at 268,500 won on Wednesday 7 October (StockAnalysis). Verdict: a modest beat on a number the market had already priced. Every published brokerage target still sits above the share price, so the debate is no longer whether memory profits are real but how long the cycle lasts and how much the stronger won takes out.
Key facts
- Q3 2026 preliminary operating profit: about 107.4 trillion won, up 782.5 percent year on year and about 20 percent quarter on quarter (Samsung guidance via Aju Press and TradingKey, 8 October 2026).
- Q3 2026 preliminary sales: about 195 trillion won, up 126.6 percent year on year and 13.7 percent quarter on quarter.
- Versus consensus: above LSEG SmartEstimate’s 106.1 trillion won (TradingKey) and FnGuide’s 105.2 trillion won as of 5 October (Financial News). Goldman Sachs had cut its own estimate to 106 trillion won from 112 trillion won to account for the stronger won (Tech Times, 7 October).
- Previous quarter: Q2 2026 sales 171.5 trillion won and operating profit 89.5 trillion won, both records at the time (Samsung, 30 July 2026).
- Share price: 268,500 won at the 7 October close, down 1.29 percent on the day (StockAnalysis; ad-hoc-news); 268,000 won at 10:30 a.m. KST on 8 October, with the KOSPI at 6,793.26 (Aju Press/Yonhap).
- Street targets: from 270,000 won (BNK Investment & Securities) to 650,000 won (Korea Investment & Securities); average about 493,864 won across brokerages (Seoul Economic Daily, 26 September).
- Not in today’s release: no division breakdown. Samsung publishes full results, including memory, foundry and mobile, later in October.
What Samsung reported on 8 October
The preliminary guidance gives two numbers and nothing else: consolidated sales of about 195 trillion won and consolidated operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won. That is more than eight times the roughly 12.1 trillion won Samsung guided for the same quarter of 2025, and about 18 trillion won more than the 89.5 trillion won it earned in the second quarter of 2026.
Coverage of the release attributes the increase to memory. TradingKey reported that AI servers drove demand for memory chips and pushed prices higher, which is consistent with what Samsung said in July, when it reported record memory revenue and profit and said it expected server DRAM, enterprise SSDs and HBM to stay undersupplied through the second half. Samsung has not yet said how the 107.4 trillion won splits between memory, foundry, mobile and displays. Any split you see quoted today is an estimate, not company data.
Why the stock did not move
The beat was small. Against LSEG’s 106.1 trillion won the guidance was about 1.2 percent higher, and some house estimates had been above 107 trillion won. Aju Press reported that much of the earnings optimism appeared to have been reflected in recent gains. The shares had already fallen from 285,500 won on 23 September, the last session before the Chuseok holiday (Seoul Economic Daily), to 268,500 won on 7 October, a decline of about 6 percent, as chip stocks across Seoul weakened with rising global bond yields.
Three questions now matter more than the headline number:
- The won. Tech Times calculated that the won appreciated about 14.3 percent against the dollar during the third quarter, with USD/KRW moving from about 1,562 in early June to about 1,338 by 9 September. Samsung sells chips in dollars and reports in won, so a stronger currency reduces reported profit. Goldman Sachs cut its estimate by about 5 percent for that reason alone.
- Memory pricing. TrendForce’s Avril Wu expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10 to 15 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, after a rise of about 60 percent in the second quarter (Tech Times). Prices are still going up, but more slowly.
- Margins. SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee expects Samsung’s memory operating margin to stay at about 76 percent in the third quarter, flat with the second (Tech Times). A flat margin at a record level is good news, but it is no longer improving.
For the full scenario model built before today’s print, see FinanceFeeds’ Samsung stock prediction: 573,000 won bull case vs 215,000 won bear case.
What the analysts expect
Korean brokerages have spread their targets widely. Seoul Economic Daily reported on 26 September that targets ranged from 270,000 won to 650,000 won, with an average of about 493,864 won.
- Korea Investment & Securities (Chae Min-sook), 650,000 won, 31 July: argues that multiyear supply contracts on five-year terms reduce the chance of a repeat of past oversupply cycles.
- Yuanta Securities Korea, 630,000 won, 23 September: raised from 530,000 won, calling the pullback a medium-to-long-term buying opportunity because memory shortages are likely to last longer than expected (Financial News; BigGo Finance).
- IBK Investment & Securities, 460,000 won, early October: Buy rating (ad-hoc-news).
- Mirae Asset Securities, 400,000 won: raised from 370,000 won in September (Financial News).
- BNK Investment & Securities (Lee Min-hee), 270,000 won, 14 September: the lowest target. Lee projects operating profit falling from 2027, to 390 trillion won in 2027 and 254 trillion won in 2028, as memory makers expand capacity aggressively (Seoul Economic Daily).
Even the lowest target is slightly above Wednesday’s close. The bear case below is therefore not an analyst target – it is a valuation floor.
Samsung stock scenarios: bull, base and bear
All percentages are measured from the 7 October close of 268,500 won.
| Scenario | 005930 level | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~215,000 won (-19.9%) | Memory pricing peaks in 2027, the won keeps strengthening, and the market values Samsung on a trough multiple of next year’s earnings. | 3 times IBK’s 2027 EPS estimate of 71,615 won, the floor used in FinanceFeeds’ 5 October scenario model; consistent with BNK’s view that profit declines from 2027. |
| Base | 270,000 – 290,000 won (+0.6% to +8.0%) | Full Q3 results confirm the guidance, Q4 DRAM prices rise 10 to 15 percent as TrendForce expects, and the stock tracks earnings without a rerating. | BNK’s 270,000 won (lowest broker target) to the 290,000 won low end of the Investing.com target range (as of 2 October). |
| Bull | ~630,000 won (+134.6%) | HBM4 volumes and long-term supply contracts extend the cycle into 2028, and the market pays a higher multiple for more durable earnings. | Yuanta Securities Korea’s 630,000 won (23 September); Korea Investment & Securities is higher still at 650,000 won. |
What to watch next
- Full Q3 results, late October. The division split will show how much of the 107.4 trillion won came from memory, and whether foundry losses narrowed.
- The won. Every further gain against the dollar reduces Samsung’s reported profit, even at unchanged chip prices.
- Peers. Micron’s last quarter is the closest read-across – see FinanceFeeds’ Micron results analysis. SK hynix rose about 1 percent to 1.74 million won on Thursday morning (TradingKey).
- NAND. The flash market has its own cycle; FinanceFeeds covered it in SanDisk stock and Citi’s target.
Quick take: Samsung guided a record 107.4 trillion won of Q3 operating profit, slightly above the 106.1 trillion won consensus. The shares held near 268,000 won because the beat was small and investors are now focused on the won, slower DRAM price growth and whether margins have peaked. Every broker target remains above the share price; the real test is the full results and Q4 guidance later this month.
FAQ
What was Samsung’s Q3 2026 operating profit?
About 107.4 trillion won on sales of about 195 trillion won, according to Samsung’s preliminary guidance released on 8 October 2026. It is the first quarter in the company’s history with more than 100 trillion won of operating profit.
Did Samsung beat expectations in Q3 2026?
Yes, slightly. The 107.4 trillion won figure was about 1.2 percent above the LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won (TradingKey) and above FnGuide’s 105.2 trillion won as of 5 October (Financial News).
Why did Samsung stock not rise after record earnings?
The beat was small and largely priced in, according to Aju Press. Investors are also weighing the stronger won, which reduces reported profit, and slower DRAM contract price growth expected in the fourth quarter.
How much did Samsung’s profit grow?
Operating profit rose 782.5 percent year on year and about 20 percent from the second quarter. Sales rose 126.6 percent year on year and 13.7 percent quarter on quarter.
What is the analyst price target for Samsung Electronics?
Korean brokerage targets range from 270,000 won (BNK Investment & Securities) to 650,000 won (Korea Investment & Securities), with an average of about 493,864 won (Seoul Economic Daily, 26 September).
When does Samsung release full Q3 2026 results?
Later in October 2026. The preliminary guidance does not include results by division; those come with the full report.
Related coverage
- Samsung stock prediction: 573,000 won bull case vs 215,000 won bear case
- Micron (MU) stock after a record Q4 and a $61.5 billion guide
- SanDisk stock: Citi’s target and the NAND cycle
Sources: Samsung Electronics Q3 2026 preliminary earnings guidance, 8 October 2026, as reported by Aju Press/Yonhap (figures, year-on-year changes, 10:30 a.m. KST share price and KOSPI), TradingKey (quarter-on-quarter changes, LSEG SmartEstimate, SK hynix move) and CNBC (dollar equivalent); Samsung Electronics Q2 2026 results, 30 July 2026; StockAnalysis (KRX: 005930 daily closes, 1-7 October 2026); ad-hoc-news (7 October close; IBK target); Financial News (FnGuide consensus, 5 October; Yuanta and Mirae targets); Seoul Economic Daily (target range, BNK and Korea Investment & Securities notes, 23 September close, 26 September 2026); Tech Times (won appreciation, Goldman Sachs estimate, SK Securities and TrendForce comments, 7 October 2026); Investing.com (target range as of 2 October).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Share prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before investing.
