MERCHANDISE exports in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to grow by up to 3.5% in 2025 despite a slower recovery in major economies and potential trade tensions, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) reported.
“Significant uncertainties, including slower-than-expected recovery in major economies and potential trade tensions, dampen growth prospects in 2025 compared to 2024 levels,” ESCAP said on Monday.
“Given these risks, ESCAP projects real merchandise exports in the region to grow between 2.7% and 3.5% in 2025, with developing economies experiencing more modest growth than developed economies,” it added.
In 2024, real exports in the Asia-Pacific region grew 3.4% in 2025, outperforming the global export growth rate of 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the region’s real imports also grew 3.6%, outpacing the 2.2% global growth rate.
“Asia and the Pacific outperformed global trade averages in 2024, revealing the region’s resilience and leadership in global trade and investment amidst significant economic uncertainties,” it said.
According to ESCAP, the stronger trade growth in the region could be attributed to regional economic recovery and less subdued consumer spending.
In 2024, intra-regional trade accounted for 60% of the region’s total exports, which ESCAP said reflects the adjustments of the regional supply chain to geopolitics and structural changes.
Meanwhile, ESCAP projects commercial services exports and imports in the region to grow 8% and 10.9% this year, respectively, amid expansion in the travel and digital sectors.
“Developed economies are anticipated to outperform others in the region. While more resilient, commercial services trade may face indirect downward pressures from disrupted merchandise trade and policy uncertainty,” it said.
In 2024, Asia-Pacific commercial services exports and imports grew 8.6% and 6.2%, respectively, outperforming global growth.
“This was primarily driven by the recovery of travel services, accounting for 20.5% of the region’s exports, alongside significant growth in construction, goods-related services, and digitally deliverable services,” ESCAP said.
ESCAP said that the region remained a top foreign direct investment (FDI) destination in 2024, due to its domestic market growth and proximity to consumers.
The communications industry posted growth of 69% to $40 billion. It was the second-largest industry after renewable energy (RE) at $58 billion.
However, the region saw a 14% decline in greenfield FDI inflows despite growing investment in climate projects.
ESCAP said that India was the region’s top FDI destination last year after attracting $76 billion worth of investment, mainly in semiconductor and RE.
Meanwhile, the region continued to be the largest contributor to the build-up of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). It accounted for nearly 60% or 374 of global PTAs.
“New agreements signed this year indicate a continuing trend towards diversifying trade partners with economies outside the region as well as the growing inclusion of sustainable development and digital trade provisions,” ESCAP said. — Justine Irish D. Tabile
