Major financial firms are racing to enter the prediction market space after the sector generated billions in trading volume over the past year.
Charles Schwab, which oversees $11.77 trillion in client assets across 39.1 million active brokerage accounts, is now preparing its own entry into the space, Reuters reported.
The brokerage plans to offer binary options on the S&P 500 through a partnership with Cboe Global Markets, Reuters reported.
Schwab’s approach carries a deliberate restriction that sets the firm apart from platforms that have driven prediction market growth into the mainstream.
The rollout is expected within months, and early details suggest a product designed to remain firmly within the bounds of regulated financial markets.
Schwab’s S&P 500 binary options include a partial payout feature
The planned contracts will function as binary options tied to the S&P 500 index, giving traders a simplified “yes-or-no” structure based on closing-price outcomes.
Each contract pays a fixed cash amount if the S&P 500 closes above or below a set level, and otherwise expires, worthless, Reuters reported.
Traditional equity options fluctuate in price with the underlying asset, but binary contracts offer a fixed-payout structure that defines risk before entry.
Schwab also plans to use Cboe’s “Plus Zone” feature, which rewards traders with partial payouts when their predictions land close to the final index level.
That structure offers a middle ground between the standard all-or-nothing binary model and the more complex pricing dynamics of traditional equity options.
Cboe developed the framework earlier this year, with initial products tied to the Mini S&P 500 Index that settle in cash, the exchange announced in March.
CEO Rick Wurster drew a firm boundary between investing and wagering
Schwab CEO Rick Wurster signaled Schwab’s interest during the company’s first quarter earnings call in April, marking its first direct remarks on prediction markets.
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“At some point, we will likely have prediction markets,” Wurster said, describing financial predictions as distinct from those in sports, politics, and pop culture, according to the Q1 2026 earnings call transcript.
He acknowledged that prediction markets were not among the top client requests but called them a competitive necessity as rivals expand their own offerings.
In a December 2025 Wall Street Journal interview, Wurster expressed concern about the impact of short-term prediction-market trading on younger investors.
“I really worry about the message that’s being sent to young investors that you’ve got to get these quick hits,” Wurster told The Journal.
Schwab posted record first-quarter revenue of $6.5 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with daily average trades reaching 9.9 million, the company reported.
Wall Street’s prediction market race has drawn billions in fresh trading volume
Quarterly prediction market trading volumes now reach tens of billions of dollars across a growing roster of regulated platforms in the United States.
That growth has accelerated as large brokerages have joined platforms that were once dominated by startups and crypto-native exchanges catering to niche audiences.
Kalshi, valued at $22 billion after a Coatue-led funding round in March, has seen quarterly trading volumes surge as retail interest in event contracts grows.
JJ Kinahan, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products at Cboe, said in a March press release that the new contracts are designed to move beyond the limitations of traditional binary event contracts.
Real-world opinions aren’t always binary, and investors shouldn’t be confined to a yes-or-no framework. Our more nuanced model is designed to reward informed perspectives, giving retail traders credit even when they are mostly right.
The United States now has 13 federally regulated prediction market platforms available to retail investors, up sharply from just a handful two years ago.
The company’s founder, Charles Schwab, invested in Kalshi’s $30 million Series A in 2021 alongside KKR co-founder Henry Kravis, InvestmentNews reported, but the brokerage built its offering through Cboe’s options framework.
Schwab’s recent product launches signal a broader push beyond traditional brokerage
This move builds on a series of recent product expansions at Schwab. Among them was the May 2026 rollout of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for select retail clients.
The crypto offering followed a successful employee pilot and is being rolled out in phases to additional customers, the company confirmed.
Wurster has also expressed interest in stablecoins, telling investors in July 2025 that offering access is “something we do want to be able to offer,” Decrypt reported.
Prediction markets, cryptocurrency trading, and potential access to stablecoins would expand the range of products available to Schwab’s retail clients.
Related: Charles Schwab, Fidelity sound alarm on Roth IRA rule
