This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: FOMC minutes, Chinese inflation, Canadian unemployment
Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, where investors and traders will be paying close attention to any hints from the Federal Reserve in terms of future developments on the monetary policy. The weaker-than-expected NFP figure of last week has somewhat eased the scenarios of an immediate rate hike; however, the possibilities of a rate hike at future Fed meetings are gaining traction according to the Fedwatch tool.
Thursday
- Chinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT. The market consensus is for a further decline in the figure, going from 1.2% to 1.1% for June.
- German Balance of trade at 06:00 AM GMT, where the expectations are for an increase reaching €15 billion in trade surplus. This might not have a significant effect on the Euro since the data are for May and might already have been priced in, but any significant deviation from the expected value could create volatility around publication time.
Friday
- Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting the figure to remain stable at 6.6% for June.
USOIL, daily
Oil traded in a narrow range as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover and OPEC+ approved another modest production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for next month, signaling confidence in improving market conditions. Prices have fallen sharply since the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement, allowing energy flows through the region to resume. There is also an overall expectation of further downside later this year as supply normalizes. Meanwhile, major Gulf producers are increasing output and exports toward pre-conflict levels. Despite the additional supply, OPEC+ is unlikely to trigger a significant oversupply that would cause a sharp collapse in prices.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a clear downtrend, with price trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Although the Stochastic oscillator remains in oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound, there is little sign of a meaningful trend reversal. The slight contraction in the Bollinger Bands points to easing volatility, but downside risks remain. The key support is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $66.80, while any recovery is likely to face resistance around $75.10. Overall, the technical bias remains bearish unless price breaks above key resistance levels.
Gold-dollar, daily
Gold held steady after recording its first weekly gain since May, supported by weaker US jobs data and reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Lower energy prices have eased inflation concerns, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s target, keeping policymakers cautious and limiting the metal’s upside. Investors are also watching renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with concerns over the central bank’s independence continuing to provide longer-term support for gold as a hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty.
From a technical standpoint, gold has staged a rebound from the lower Bollinger Band but remains below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader trend tilted to the downside. The recent recovery has lifted price toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,200, which is acting as the first resistance level. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator has climbed into overbought territory, suggesting the rally may be losing momentum and increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. The Bollinger Bands have started to narrow, indicating that volatility is easing after the recent selloff. Overall, the technical outlook remains cautiously bearish unless gold breaks above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, with stronger resistance seen around the 38.2% retracement near $4,340.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
