Google stock price faces major AI test ahead of earnings

Ever since ChatGPT exploded in popularity, investors have worried that artificial intelligence could weaken Google’s most important business.

Instead of searching for information and clicking through Google’s advertising-heavy results, consumers can increasingly ask an AI chatbot for a direct answer.

For Alphabet, the threat is real as Google Search is its financial engine, generating more than half of the company’s total revenue.

But with Alphabet set to report second-quarter earnings next week, new data suggests the feared disruption has not materialized yet.

Google’s traffic and search-market share remained stable in June, while its Gemini AI platform continued to gain users, according to a Bank of America note shared with TheStreet.

BofA sees Google Search holding its ground

BofA analyst Justin Post used web traffic data from Similarweb, mobile usage estimates from Sensor Tower, and search market share figures from Statcounter for updated information.

According to the data, average daily global web visits to Google increased 4% year over year to 2.8 billion in June.

More Google:

That made Google’s web traffic 16 times larger than ChatGPT’s and roughly 90 times larger than Anthropic’s Claude.

ChatGPT averaged 179 million daily global web visits, unchanged from both a year earlier and May.

In the U.S. alone, Google’s daily web traffic increased 3% year over year to 535 million.

While ChatGPT traffic rose 19% to 31 million, it remained only about 6% of Google’s total and declined 1% from May.

The results suggest that consumers are adding AI tools to their online routines without abandoning Google Search.

Google’s global search engine market share also increased 79 basis points from May and 171 basis points from a year earlier to 91.3%.

In the U.S., Google’s share rose 86 basis points from May to 86.7%.

BofA said Google’s recent description of an “expansionary moment” for Search could point to higher usage, more commercially valuable queries, and additional opportunities to place ads inside new AI-powered search formats.

Given the stable traffic and strong e-commerce activity during the second quarter, the firm sees potential upside to Wall Street’s current Search revenue estimates.

BofA maintained its Buy rating and $430 price target on Alphabet stock, representing 20.4% upside from the share price used in the report.

Alphabet’s Class A stock has also risen 9% over the past quarter.

Bank of America tests Google Search traffic against competitors.

Kenneth Cheung / Getty Images

Gemini growth gives Google AI advantage

Google is not merely defending its traditional Search business.

Its standalone Gemini platform is also growing quickly.

Gemini’s global mobile daily active users increased 295% year over year to 118 million in June.
App added 8 million daily users in June from May, representing a monthly growth rate of 7%.

This growth followed several recent updates that have made Gemini faster, which include:

Gemini Spark, a personal AI agent
Gemini Omni for video creation, following the success of Nano Banana for images.
Gemini 3.5 Flash, its best model yet
Gemini Live, which is now part of Android and iOS

ChatGPT remained much larger, with 441 million global mobile daily active users, but its audience has been flat since May.

Another growing competitor, Claude, reached 18 million daily users, up 9% during the month.

Meanwhile, the main Google app reached 2.2 billion global mobile daily active users, up 12% year over year.

Alphabet can distribute Gemini through Search, Android, Chrome, and Workspace, while also building the Gemini app as a direct competitor to ChatGPT.

And this has helped Gemini grow rapidly, although ChatGPT’s mobile audience still remains substantially larger.

This distribution advantage can allow Alphabet to expand in generative AI without sacrificing the existing products that fund its investments.

The wider AI battle is also becoming more contentious.

As TheStreet recently reported, Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging that they stole trade secrets to help develop OpenAI’s consumer hardware products.

OpenAI denied having any interest in other companies’ trade secrets.

The lawsuit illustrates how competition among the largest AI companies is spreading beyond chatbots into hardware, distribution, talent, and intellectual property.

Alphabet earnings to test bullish view amid AI risks

Alphabet’s upcoming earnings, scheduled for July 22, will show whether its resilient traffic is translating into continued revenue growth.

In the first quarter, Alphabet’s total revenue increased 22% year over year to $109.9 billion.

Google Search and other revenue rose 19% to $60.4 billion.
Google Cloud revenue surged 63% to $20 billion.
Cloud operating income more than tripled to nearly $6.6 billion.

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Search queries reached an all-time high during the quarter, with AI Overviews and AI Mode driving overall Search growth.

“It’s clear that our AI investments and full-stack approach are driving performance across our business,” said Pichai at the company’s earnings call.

Google also said Gemini’s improved understanding of user intent was helping the company serve ads for longer and more complex searches that were previously difficult to monetize.

Alphabet reduced the cost of producing its core AI Search responses by more than 30%.

This came after upgrading AI Overviews and AI Mode to Gemini 3, an important step as the company seeks to prevent higher computing costs from eroding Search’s profitability.

BofA estimates that Alphabet will report second-quarter earnings of $2.99 per share.

However, investors will also be watching Alphabet’s enormous AI spending bill.

The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $180 billion and $190 billion and said spending is expected to increase significantly again in 2027.

Alphabet said the investments are necessary to meet unprecedented demand for AI computing capacity, but acknowledged that higher depreciation, energy, and data-center operating costs will pressure expenses.

BofA identified Alphabet’s elevated valuation, OpenAI’s potential advertising expansion, and the arrival of increasingly competitive AI models as key risks.

For now, however, the bank’s data suggests Google is managing both sides of the AI transition.

Search remains dominant, Gemini is gaining users, and Alphabet is finding more ways to monetize complicated AI-powered queries.

Investors will be looking for evidence that AI is expanding Google Search and Cloud revenue fast enough to justify the billions Alphabet is spending to stay ahead.