Wall Street rewards patience just as often as conviction. Here, the smartest move isn’t buying more but knowing when to wait. I make more money in the market by sitting on my hands than I make by trying to be part of every move.
Jim Cramer spent just a few seconds on July 16 explaining that is what you need to do on Nebius Group (NBIS). Despite a steep drop in the stock, Cramer didn’t trash the company. In fact, he said the opposite.
“It’s a very good company,” the Mad Money host told viewers during his lightning round.
But good companies and good entry points are two very different things. And right now, Cramer is drawing a hard line between them.
Nebius has been one of the most explosive AI infrastructure stocks of the past year — a 222% one-year return, according to Yahoo Finance. A $775 million debt facility just closed. Contracts with Microsoft and Meta. That’s the kind of resume that makes investors want to jump in immediately.
Cramer’s message? You may not want to jump just yet.
Jim Cramer’s NBIS warning: ‘That time is not now’
Cramer was blunt during the July 16 lightning round segment.
“Nebius is at the nexus of the craziness right now,” he said. “It’s not a crazy company; it’s a very good company.”
“This stock is not done going down. There’ll be another time to buy it, but that time is not now,” he continued.
More Nebius:
- Nebius lands $1 billion AI deal as one major risk looms
- Nebius CEO doubles down on capex spending
- Morgan Stanley resets Nebius stock price forecast
His overall message is one worth sitting with. Cramer isn’t calling Nebius broken. He’s calling the entry point wrong. And looking at my chart, I can also see a similar case.
NBIS hit a 52-week high of $299 on June 22, according to Yahoo Finance data. Since then, the stock has retraced approximately 42%. On July 16 alone, shares fell about 13.90%, closing at $171.77. That kind of selling pressure, sustained over weeks, rarely resolves overnight.
What’s driving the Nebius selloff, and why the $775M facility didn’t stop it
Here’s where it gets interesting. Nebius delivered a financing milestone that most growth companies would celebrate.
The company closed its first senior secured debt facility for approximately $775 million to expand its artificial intelligence (AI) cloud platform, according to a company statement.
Also Read: Nebius Group NV Latest News and Stories
The facility is backed by deployed graphics processing unit (GPU) infrastructure, is contracted for cash flows from an investment-grade customer, matures in 2030, and is priced at SOFR plus 2.50%.
Nebius also stated it now holds more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft and Meta.
So why did Nebius’ stock fall anyway?
My review of the data points to two compounding pressures. First, the facility itself, while substantial, also highlights the capital intensity of Nebius’s growth model. And investors are recalibrating how much that costs.
Second, insider activity has recently been hard to ignore.
Over the past 90 days, Nebius insiders completed 33 transactions — all sales — totaling approximately $27.8 million in net value, according to Insider Screener.
Key executives, including the chief executive officer and chief technology officer, participated in those sales. When leadership sells at this pace, the market tends to notice.
Nebius Q1 2026 earnings showed explosive growth, with one important asterisk
The fundamentals, taken at face value, are genuinely impressive.
According to Nebius’s Q1 2026 financial report, key highlights included:
- Revenue of $399.0 million, up 684% year-over-year (YoY) from $50.9 million in Q1 2025
- Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) swung to a positive $129.5 million, compared to a loss of $53.7 million a year earlier
- Cash and cash equivalents of $9.3 billion as of March 31, 2026
But there’s an important asterisk on the net income figure. Nebius reported net income from continuing operations of $621.2 million.
Related: Morgan Stanley resets Nebius stock price forecast
That number looks extraordinary until you note it was driven largely by a $780.6 million gain from the revaluation of investments in equity securities. Strip that out and the adjusted net loss actually widened slightly, rising about 20% to $100.3 million, according to the report.
Capital expenditures also ballooned. up 355% to $2.47 billion, as the company aggressively scales infrastructure. That spending is strategic, but it explains why investors are scrutinizing the balance sheet more carefully even as revenue rockets higher.
Where the chart says NBIS may find its floor, and what to watch next
This is where the story is genuinely useful for you if you’re watching from the sidelines.
I looked at my chart, and the technicals suggest a potential landing zone that long-term bulls should have marked on their charts.
NBIS is trending lower toward a key support zone between roughly $122 and $137. That level carries what traders call a triple support confluence:
- Strong horizontal price support established from multiple prior rejections
- The 200-day moving average reading is at $137
- An ascending trendline has held since February 2026, with three previous rejections at that level
A smaller support zone sits between approximately $165 and $175, which also lines up with the 100-day moving average near $174. That’s where Nebius is trading currently. If that level breaks, the path toward the stronger $122–$136 zone opens up.
That lower zone is where a more compelling risk-reward entry could emerge. But only if we get confirmation. Buying into a falling stock without a technical floor and confirmation variables is no different from trying to catch a falling knife.
Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh framed the long-term vision clearly in the company’s Q1 shareholder letter:
“We are not simply responding to where the industry stands today; we have the knowledge and experience to build the infrastructure, tools, and capabilities for where it will be tomorrow.”
The business case is intact. The entry case, at least for now, is not.
