Updated 19 October 2026. Spot gold traded near $4,176 an ounce in Asian trading on Monday 19 October, up about 0.3 percent from Friday’s close near $4,166 (ABC News, Goodreturns, FXStreet). Bets on an October Fed hike have faded, the dollar slipped to a two-week low and Brent crude eased about 2 percent from $110. Verdict: the pressure from oil and yields has eased for now, but a December hike is still priced at more than 90 percent, which caps rallies below $4,220. Reference levels: $4,065 below, $4,315 above.
Key facts
- Monday price: spot gold rose 0.3 percent to $4,178 by mid-afternoon in Sydney (ABC News markets blog). Goodreturns put it up 0.3 percent at $4,175.60 at 8:29 am India time, and FXStreet had XAU/USD around $4,175 in early Asian trading (Lallalit Srijandorn).
- Friday close, 16 October: about $4,166, little changed on the day (Trading Economics). Gold finished last week down about 0.7 percent (ABC News).
- Fed odds: Deutsche Bank strategists said October hike pricing fell to about 15 percent from roughly 30 percent while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke last week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows more than a 90 percent chance of a December hike; FXStreet cited 91.8 percent (FXStreet, Haresh Menghani and Lallalit Srijandorn).
- Dollar and yields: the US dollar fell to a two-week low as Treasury yields pulled back from multi-year highs (FXStreet, Haresh Menghani).
- Oil: Brent fell about 1.7-1.9 percent to around $108 on Monday after President Trump waived new Russia sanctions and announced a diesel deal with Moscow (ABC News, HDFC Sky).
- Range: the year-to-date low is near $3,957, set in July, and the August high was around $4,700 (FXStreet).
Why gold is edging higher
Last week gold traded on yields, not on inflation headlines. The hot September CPI pushed Treasury yields to multi-year highs and sent gold toward $4,065-$4,075. Then Warsh declined to signal another move at his IMF appearance in Bangkok, and October hike odds halved. We set out that swing in our gold week-ahead outlook on Friday.
Monday adds a second, smaller tailwind. Oil near $110 had been feeding inflation fears and pushing yields up. Brent’s drop to about $108 after the Russia sanctions waiver eases that pressure a little. We cover the oil side in today’s Brent outlook.
December is the cap
The market has not dropped the idea of tighter policy. It has pushed it to December, where a hike is priced at more than 90 percent on CME FedWatch. FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani described gold as stuck in a familiar range below $4,200 because of that pricing. The Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September and meets again on 27-28 October.
The technical picture backs that up. Gold sits below its 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart (FXStreet, Menghani), and its daily RSI near 46 shows weak upside momentum (FXStreet, Srijandorn).
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,065 | Oil rebounds on new Gulf disruption, yields climb again and October hike bets return. Gold breaks $4,145 and $4,100. | Last week’s swing low at $4,065-$4,075 (FXStreet, Menghani). About 2.7 percent below Monday’s $4,176. |
| Base | $4,145-$4,220 | A quiet week. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout, oil holds near $105-$111 and yields stay below last week’s highs. | FXStreet support at $4,145-$4,150; resistance at $4,200 and the $4,215-$4,220 range top. |
| Bull | $4,315 | Yields keep falling, the dollar extends its slide and gold clears $4,220 and the 100-day average near $4,240. | The upper Bollinger band on the daily chart at $4,315 (FXStreet, Srijandorn). |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. The levels are technical reference points measured from the verified Monday quote, not price forecasts. A break of $4,065 would expose the $3,957 year-to-date low (FXStreet).
What to watch this week
- Oil: whether the Russia sanctions waiver holds and whether Hormuz shipping incidents continue. Higher oil means higher yields and a weaker gold.
- The 10-year yield and the dollar: the dollar’s two-week low is gold’s best support right now.
- US data: housing starts, weekly jobless claims and the preliminary S&P Global PMIs for October on Friday 23 October (Trading Central via Mitrade).
- 27-28 October: the FOMC decision. Read our Fed odds explainer for how the pricing moved after CPI.
Quick take: gold opened the week up about 0.3 percent near $4,176 as October hike bets faded, the dollar slipped and oil eased after the Russia sanctions waiver. December hike odds above 90 percent keep a lid on it. Expect $4,145-$4,220. Lower yields and a weaker dollar open $4,315. A new oil spike and a return of October hike bets open $4,065.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded near $4,176 an ounce on Monday 19 October 2026, up about 0.3 percent (ABC News, Goodreturns, FXStreet).
Why is gold up today?
Expectations of an October Fed hike have faded, the dollar fell to a two-week low and Treasury yields pulled back. Lower oil prices after the Russia sanctions waiver also eased inflation worries.
Will the Fed hike rates in October?
Markets see it as unlikely. Deutsche Bank strategists said October hike pricing fell to about 15 percent. A December hike is priced at more than 90 percent on CME FedWatch (FXStreet).
Can gold get back above $4,200?
$4,200 and the $4,215-$4,220 range top are the first hurdles (FXStreet). A close above them would put the 100-day average near $4,240 and then $4,315 in view.
Where is support for gold?
$4,145-$4,150 first, then $4,100, then last week’s low at $4,065-$4,075. Below that, the year-to-date low near $3,957 (FXStreet).
How does oil affect gold right now?
Higher oil raises inflation expectations and pushes Treasury yields up, which makes non-yielding gold less attractive. That is why gold fell when Brent hit $110 last week and is edging up as oil eases.
Sources: ABC News markets blog (spot gold intraday, 19 October 2026); Goodreturns (spot quote, 19 October); FXStreet, Haresh Menghani (Fed pricing, Deutsche Bank comment, dollar, support and resistance, 19 October); FXStreet, Lallalit Srijandorn (spot, CME FedWatch, Bollinger levels, RSI, 19 October); Trading Economics (Friday close); HDFC Sky (Brent); Trading Central via Mitrade (data calendar).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
