Updated 26 October 2026. Brent crude futures traded at $114.60 a barrel at about 10:50 am Beijing time on Monday, down $2.15 or 1.8 percent from Friday’s $116.72 settlement, the highest since April; WTI fell 2.1 percent to $101.10 (OilPrice.com via Gulf News). Abu Dhabi’s Murban moved the other way, up about 3 percent to above $118. Verdict: the market has given the weekend’s Houthi claims on Yanbu, Rabigh and the East-West Pipeline the benefit of the doubt. Saudi Arabia has confirmed no damage, the coalition says it intercepted the missiles, and Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday; Brent is shedding part of last week’s 6 percent gain while barrels that avoid Hormuz get bid up. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent $114.60, down $2.15, and WTI $101.10, down $2.15 or 2.08 percent, at about 10:50 am Beijing time on Monday 26 October (OilPrice.com via Gulf News). At the Asian open, 00:18 GMT, Brent was $115.16, down 1.34 percent, and WTI $101.67 (The Nation). Another Monday report had Brent down 2.1 percent near $114.30 (HDFC Sky).
- Last week: Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday 23 October, up nearly $3 on the day and about 6 percent on the week, its highest settlement since April; WTI gained 2.3 percent on the week (Reuters, The Nation).
- Murban’s premium: Murban rose about 3 percent to above $118 on Monday, roughly $3.40 above Brent, after matching Brent at $114.40 on Friday. It loads at Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz, and in mid-September it traded above $127 while Brent was above $107 (Gulf News). A widening Murban premium means buyers are paying for barrels that do not need Hormuz or the Red Sea.
- The weekend claims: on Saturday 24 October the Houthis said they struck Aramco’s Yanbu facility, the Rabigh refinery and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the reports; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif. On Sunday the coalition said it intercepted further drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh, Khamis Mushait and the southern region (Gulf News, Al Jazeera). No hit on oil infrastructure has been independently confirmed.
- Why Yanbu matters: it is the Red Sea outlet of the 7 million barrel-a-day East-West Pipeline that replaced Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz exports (Gulf News). Aramco suspended Yanbu loadings in September after earlier attacks, which is the precedent the bull case rests on.
- Airport and diplomacy: Saudi Arabia partially resumed operations at its main airport, damaged in earlier attacks, while the Houthis vowed to keep targeting it (The Nation). Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday seeking to ease regional tensions (Reuters, via Business Recorder).
- Hormuz: US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday; CentCom said US forces have helped partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels since the summer (Gulf News).
- Rates: the Fed is expected to hold on Wednesday 28 October; CME FedWatch prices a December hike at about 75 percent, and September PCE is due on Thursday 29 October (Reuters). Oil at $115-plus is the main reason every economist in the Reuters poll of 16-20 October expected a December increase.
Claims without confirmed barrels
The weekend tested a question the market has been asking since the first strikes on Saudi Arabia: what is a Houthi claim worth before it is confirmed? On Monday’s evidence, about $2. Brent opened lower in Asia and kept sliding through the morning, and Gulf News noted the trigger “was not immediately clear”, with profit-taking after a 6 percent week the usual explanation. The coalition’s interception statements, the partial reopening of Riyadh’s airport and the Qatari trip to Tehran all point the same way: a war that is still being fought, but not one that has yet removed Saudi barrels from the market. Sunday’s page set out the claims in detail; nothing since has turned any of them into a confirmed outage.
Murban is the counterpoint. A 3 percent rise in the Fujairah-loaded grade on the same morning Brent fell is the market pricing route risk, not supply loss: buyers in Asia are paying up for crude that avoids both Hormuz and the Red Sea while the East-West Pipeline’s Yanbu terminal is a stated Houthi target. If that spread keeps widening, it says the physical market is more nervous than the futures screen. The Friday page covered the evacuations at Dhahran that started this leg higher.
Where the Fed comes in
Oil and rates are now one trade. Brent above $115 is feeding the inflation expectations that keep December hike odds near 75 percent, and a hawkish Fed on Wednesday plus a hot PCE print on Thursday would hit demand expectations from the other side. That is the path to the $108 bear level. Lower oil on Monday already lifted gold back above $4,000, which our gold coverage tracks; the two markets are moving off the same switch.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | Saudi Arabia keeps reporting interceptions and no damage, the Qatari mediation produces a de-escalation signal, and a hawkish Fed plus a hot PCE print weigh on demand. | About 5.8 percent below Monday’s $114.60, where Brent traded on 20-22 October before the Saudi strikes began. |
| Base | $112-$118 | Attacks and interceptions continue at the weekend’s pace, Yanbu’s status stays unconfirmed and the market trades headlines through the Fed. | Monday’s range extended both ways, with Friday’s $116.72 settlement inside it. |
| Bull | $120 | Aramco confirms damage at Yanbu or Rabigh and suspends loadings as in September, the US resumes strikes on Iran, or Hormuz flows fall. | HSBC’s stalemate scenario, about 4.7 percent above Monday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Saudi statements: any confirmation or denial of damage at Yanbu, Rabigh or the East-West Pipeline is the biggest single input.
- Murban-Brent spread: about $3.40 on Monday. A wider gap means the physical market is paying for routes away from Hormuz and the Red Sea.
- Qatar and Iran: any readout from the mediators’ visit to Tehran.
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm EDT: the Fed decision and the December language.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP.
- Friday 30 October: Exxon Mobil and Chevron report third-quarter results (company calendars).
Quick take: Brent is near $114.60 on Monday, down about 2 percent, because the weekend’s Houthi claims on Yanbu and Rabigh remain unconfirmed and Qatar is mediating in Tehran. Murban’s 3 percent jump shows the physical market still pays for Hormuz-free barrels. Expect $112-$118 into the Fed. Confirmed damage at Yanbu opens $120; a de-escalation signal and a hawkish Fed open $108.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent traded at $114.60 a barrel at about 10:50 am Beijing time on Monday 26 October 2026, down $2.15 or 1.8 percent from Friday’s $116.72 settlement (OilPrice.com via Gulf News).
Why is oil down on Monday?
No Saudi oil damage from the weekend’s Houthi claims has been confirmed, the coalition says it intercepted the missiles, and traders took profits after Brent’s 6 percent gain last week. Qatari mediators also visited Tehran on Sunday.
What did the Houthis claim?
On 24 October they said they struck Aramco’s Yanbu facility, the Rabigh refinery and Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the claims (Gulf News).
What is the WTI price today?
WTI was $101.10 a barrel on Monday morning in Asia, down 2.08 percent (OilPrice.com via Gulf News).
Why is Murban higher than Brent?
Murban loads at Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, so it avoids both Hormuz and Red Sea route risk. It rose about 3 percent to above $118 on Monday, about $3.40 over Brent (Gulf News).
What could push Brent to $120?
Confirmed damage at Yanbu or Rabigh and a suspension of loadings, as in September, a resumption of US strikes on Iran, or lower Hormuz flows. $120 is HSBC’s stalemate scenario.
Sources: OilPrice.com via Gulf News (Monday Brent, WTI and Murban prices, weekend claims and coalition statements, CentCom, 26 October 2026); The Nation (00:18 GMT prices, airport reopening, 26 October); HDFC Sky (Monday Brent, 26 October); Reuters (Friday settlement and weekly gains, 23 October; Qatari mediators, FedWatch 75 percent, 26 October, via Business Recorder); Al Jazeera (Sunday interceptions, 25 October); OilPrice.com and Reuters (September Yanbu suspension); Reuters poll of economists (16-20 October); HSBC forecast as cited on FinanceFeeds’ 24 October page.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
