Updated 28 October 2026. Brent crude futures rose $1.50, or 1.32 percent, to $115.59 a barrel in Asian trade on Wednesday, with WTI up $1.47 to $101.37 (CNBC, 28 October). The bounce recovers most of Tuesday’s slide of nearly $2, after Yemen’s Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery with a ballistic missile. Verdict: the diplomacy discount from Monday’s Tehran meeting is being tested by an unconfirmed strike claim, hours before the Fed decision at 2 pm ET. Until Riyadh confirms damage, this is a headline premium, not a supply loss. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent futures $115.59, up $1.50 or 1.32 percent, and WTI $101.37, up 1.47 percent, on Wednesday 28 October in Asian trade (CNBC). Reuters had Brent up about 1.3 percent near $115 at 01:40 GMT (via investingLive), and OilPriceAPI’s spot-basis Brent assessment was $115.88 at 06:36 UTC.
- Tuesday: Brent fell $2.09, or 1.8 percent, to $113.72 by 1:44 pm EDT, and WTI fell $1.93 to $99.83, as the Tehran talks eased supply worries (The Globe and Mail). Friday’s settlement near $117 was the highest since April.
- The Ras Tanura claim: the Houthis said on Tuesday they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s biggest, with a ballistic missile (The Globe and Mail). Reuters described the target as a 550,000 barrel-per-day facility; Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the strike and there was no information on damage or disruption (via investingLive).
- Tehran track: Iran’s Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Tuesday, a day after talks with Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani representatives. Iranian state media said the four countries agreed to keep talking (The Globe and Mail).
- Israel: exit polls from Tuesday’s general election suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc fell well short of a 61-seat majority; official results are due on 4 November. Israel’s defence minister dismissed reports of a plan to strike Iran before the vote (Reuters, via investingLive).
- Supply data: a Reuters poll of eight analysts expects US crude inventories to rise by about 15,000 barrels in the week to 23 October, essentially flat. OPEC+ is expected to keep December output targets unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, according to three sources cited by Reuters.
- The Fed: CME FedWatch prices a 92.8 percent chance the Fed holds at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent today and an 84.4 percent chance of a December hike (FXStreet, 27 October). The statement is due at 2 pm ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
A claim, not yet a supply loss
Two sessions of selling took Brent from above $117 to $113.72 on the hope that the Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani visit to Tehran opens a path out of the war. Wednesday’s Asian session put back most of that move on a single Houthi claim. The pattern is the one we described on Monday’s page: claims against Saudi energy sites move the price for a session, and confirmed damage is what would move it for a week. Ras Tanura is a bigger target than the Yanbu claims of the weekend, which is why the reaction was larger, but the coalition has so far reported interceptions rather than hits.
The analysts quoted by The Globe and Mail see the premium staying. Gelber & Associates said Houthi attacks and a growing Gulf military presence are keeping supply risks in place. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop pointed to a significant risk premium tied to a possible US or Israeli attack on Iran, and Commerzbank flagged that a re-elected Netanyahu might pursue regime change in Iran. UBS now expects Brent to stay near $110 through year-end, up from its earlier $100 forecast – a view that sits below today’s price and still assumes the war premium does not disappear.
Where the Fed comes in
Oil is the reason the market still prices a December hike: Brent above $110 keeps headline inflation hot, and that is what Warsh will be asked about at 2:30 pm ET. A hawkish statement would weigh on demand expectations; a hold that leaves December open is already priced. Our Fed decision preview lays out what the statement has to say for oil, gold and bitcoin, and our gold coverage shows how lower oil fed straight into the metal’s bounce this week.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | Saudi Arabia reports no damage at Ras Tanura, the Tehran channel produces a concrete step, and a hawkish Fed plus a hot PCE print weigh on demand. | About 6.6 percent below Wednesday’s $115.59; under UBS’s $110 year-end view. |
| Base | $112-$118 | Claims and interceptions continue, talks go on without a deal, and Brent trades headlines through the Fed, PCE and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. | Tuesday’s $113.72 intraday level to just above last week’s highs. |
| Bull | $120 | Damage at Ras Tanura is confirmed, or the post-election Israeli government or Washington moves against Iran. | About 3.8 percent above Wednesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Riyadh: any Saudi statement confirming or denying damage at Ras Tanura.
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm ET: the Fed decision, then Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 pm.
- Wednesday, 10:30 am ET: weekly US government crude inventory data, against a Reuters poll calling for a build of about 15,000 barrels.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am ET: September PCE and third-quarter GDP.
- Friday 30 October: Exxon Mobil and Chevron third-quarter results.
- Sunday 1 November: OPEC+ meeting, expected to hold December targets.
Quick take: Brent is back near $115.59 on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, erasing most of Tuesday’s diplomacy-driven drop. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any damage, and the Fed decides at 2 pm ET. Expect $112-$118 into the Fed and PCE. Confirmed damage opens $120; a quiet Saudi denial and a hawkish Fed open $108.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent crude futures traded at $115.59 a barrel in Asian trade on Wednesday 28 October 2026, up $1.50 or 1.32 percent (CNBC).
Why is oil up today?
Yemen’s Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest, with a ballistic missile. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike or any damage (Reuters; The Globe and Mail).
What is the WTI price today?
WTI traded at $101.37 a barrel on Wednesday morning in Asia, up $1.47 or 1.47 percent (CNBC).
Why did oil fall on Tuesday?
Iranian state media said Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to keep talking after Monday’s meeting in Tehran. Brent fell $2.09 to $113.72 by early Tuesday afternoon in New York (The Globe and Mail).
Will the Fed raise rates today?
Markets do not expect it. CME FedWatch put the chance of a hold at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent at 92.8 percent, with December hike odds at 84.4 percent (FXStreet).
What do analysts expect for Brent?
UBS expects Brent to stay near $110 through year-end, up from its earlier $100 forecast. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop sees a significant risk premium tied to a possible attack on Iran (The Globe and Mail).
Sources: CNBC (Wednesday Brent and WTI futures, 28 October 2026); Reuters via investingLive (01:40 GMT move, refinery capacity, Saudi response, inventory poll, OPEC+ sources, Israeli election, 28 October); OilPriceAPI (06:36 UTC spot-basis Brent assessment); The Globe and Mail (Tuesday prices, Ras Tanura claim, Tehran talks, Gelber & Associates, SEB, Commerzbank and UBS views, 27 October); FXStreet citing CME FedWatch (Fed odds, 27 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
